Economic Overview

The United States is the world's largest economy ahead of China. According to estimates by the Bureau of Economic Analysis, in 2025, real GDP grew by 2.1%, down from 2.8% in 2024. The 2025 growth primarily reflected increases in consumer spending and investment. More specifically, consumer spending rose due to gains in services and goods. Healthcare, particularly hospital and outpatient services, led service growth; whereas recreational goods and vehicles, driven by information processing equipment and motor vehicles, boosted goods spending. Government spending increased at both state and federal levels. State and local growth were driven by employee compensation, while federal growth was led by defence expenditures (data Bureau of Economic Analysis). According to the IMF, the rate of economic activity is anticipated to pick up slightly in 2026, to 2.3%, easing to 2.2% the following year.

Concerning public finances, in fiscal year 2025 (which ended on September 30), the federal budget deficit was USD 1.8 trillion, down USD 41 billion (2%) from 2024, equaling 5.9% of GDP (above the 50-year average of 3.8%). Revenues increased 6% (USD 317 billion), driven by higher individual income taxes and customs duties, while outlays rose 4% (USD 275 billion). Net interest on the public debt surpassed USD 1 trillion for the first time. Federal debt held by the public reached 99.4% of GDP (data Congressional Budget Office). The CBO forecasts a USD 1.9 trillion federal budget deficit for fiscal year 2026 (5.8% of GDP), roughly unchanged in 2027 (USD 1.89 trillion), and hitting USD 3.1 trillion in 2036. As per the IMF, persistent high deficits and interest expenses have led to a rise in general government debt, which was estimated at general government debt estimated at 121% of GDP in 2024. Data by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics show that inflation increased 3.4% over the 12 months ending in August 2026. The core index (excluding food and energy) rose 2.4%, while the energy index climbed 16.3%. The food index grew by 2.7% over the same period. After three cuts during 2025 took the federal funds rate to 3.5%-3.75%, renewed price pressure prompted the Fed to raise it by 0.25% to 3.75%-4% in September 2026, in order to balance employment and price stability. The IMF forecasts an inflation rate of 3.6% in 2026, easing to 2.4% the following year.

Hiring has eased following significant U.S. central bank rate hikes in 2022 and 2023. However, the economy remained strong due to a resilient labor market, characterized by historically low layoffs and wage-driven consumer spending. The unemployment rate stood at 4.1% in August 2026 (Bureau of Labor Statistics), with the CBO expecting an annual average of 4.6% for the year. Overall, American citizens enjoy one of the highest GDPs (PPP) per capita in the world, estimated at more than USD 90,026 in 2025 by the World Bank. Nevertheless, inequalities are still significant, as they tend to be worsened by current public health policies (with rising numbers of people without health insurance). In 2025, the poverty rate was 10.2%, with 34.5 million people in poverty, down from 10.7% the previous year (U.S. Census – latest data available).

Foreign Trade

The U.S. is the world's largest importer and second-largest exporter of goods, as well as the largest importer and exporter of commercial services. Nevertheless, trade represents only 25% of its GDP (World Bank, 2024 – latest data available). The country signed 14 reciprocal free trade agreements, 5 preferential trade programs, 51 trade and investment framework agreements, and 48 bilateral investment treaties (LOC). U.S. top identified exports in 2025 were refined petroleum oils (5.0%), crude oil (4.6%), petroleum gas (3.8%), gold (3.7%), computers (2.8%), and vaccines and other blood products (2.6%), whereas imports included computers (7.2%), motor cars (5.2%), crude oil (4.2%), telephones (4.1%), vaccines and other blood products (3.1%), and medicaments (2.7% - data Comtrade).

The country's main export partners in 2025 were Mexico (15.5%), Canada (15.1%), China (4.9%), the United Kingdom and the Netherlands (4.4% each), Germany and Japan (3.8% each); as imports came chiefly from Mexico (15.4%), Canada (11.2%), China (9.3%), Taiwan (5.9%), Vietnam (5.7%), Germany (4.5%), and Japan (4.3% - data Comtrade). Historically, the U.S. has taken the view that trade promotes economic growth, social stability, democracy and better international relations. However, in recent years the trend has reversed, with the insurgence of several trade disputes (particularly with China, accused of unfair trade practices). In 2025, the Trump administration imposed sweeping tariffs under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA), including “reciprocal” tariffs on most trading partners from April and specific duties on Canada, Mexico, and China. In February 2026, the Supreme Court ruled that IEEPA does not authorise the President to impose tariffs; the administration immediately replaced them with a temporary 10% global tariff under Section 122 of the Trade Act, itself replaced on 24 July 2026 by new Section 301 duties of 10% to 12.5% depending on the country. Sectoral tariffs under Section 232 (steel, aluminium, automobiles, etc.) and existing Section 301 duties on China remain in force.

The U.S. trade balance is structurally negative. In 2025, exports of goods rose by 6.0% to USD 2,185.2 billion, while imports increased by 4.4% to USD 3,506.6 billion (WTO). Despite being a net importer of goods, the U.S. are a net exporter of services: in 2025, services exports totalled USD 1,232.4 billion (+6.9% y-o-y) against USD 903.3 billion in imports (+7.4% y-o-y – WTO). According to preliminary figures from the BEA, the goods and services deficit reached USD 901.5 billion in 2025, a decrease of USD 2.1 billion from USD 903.5 billion in the previous year. Exports totalled USD 3,432.3 billion, rising by USD 199.8 billion year-on-year, while imports amounted to USD 4,333.8 billion, up USD 197.8 billion.