International
support

In more than 90 countries

Ukraine

Key data Change country

Economic and political overview

Economic Overview

On February 24th 2022, Russia initiated a military conflict on the Ukrainian territory, which profoundly upsets the current political context in both countries and will have substantial political and economic ramifications. For the ongoing updates on the developments of Russia-Ukraine conflict please consult the dedicated pages on BBC News.

Three years into the conflict, Russia's invasion of Ukraine stands as a tragic event with profound human and economic consequences. The invasion has inflicted staggering losses on both the people and the economy of Ukraine, erasing 15 years of development gains and exacerbating poverty. Macroeconomic indicators for Ukraine in 2024 show growth, but the positive trend is slowing. After the recovery from the severe 2022 decline (-28.8% GDP), the low comparison base that fueled a record +5.3% growth in 2023 has now been exhausted. The Ministry of Economy forecasts 3.6% y/y growth for 2024. This slowdown is attributed to factors such as a low harvest, weaker external demand, intensified hostilities, strikes on energy and critical infrastructure, and increased staff shortages. Key growth drivers in 2023 included the maritime corridor, boosting agribusiness and steel exports, defence orders supporting machine building, and international aid bolstering consumer demand. With the ongoing war and plateauing external support, growth is projected to slow to 2.5% in 2025. However, it could be stronger if the security situation stabilizes and reconstruction and recovery efforts gain momentum.

Ukraine's budget deficit grew by about 33% in 2024, reaching around USD 42 billion, though it was lower than the projected 43.8 billion, according to the National Bank of Ukraine. A record influx of foreign aid in December helped cover state budget expenses and create a liquidity reserve for early 2025. The primary spending areas were defence, security, and social programs. Ukraine also received USD 41.7 billion in foreign budget support throughout the year. The budget deficit is expected to remain large, at around 20% of GDP in 2025 and 2026 (data OECD). With the war assumed to continue through 2025, the government plans for defence and security spending to rise to 26.3% of GDP, excluding in-kind support from external partners. However, a ceasefire may reduce this share. The 2025 budget aims to curb spending on social services, healthcare, and education to 8.4% of GDP, about 1% lower than in 2024. The government intends to finance 57% of spending through domestic revenues, boosted by inflation, a depreciating exchange rate, and increased corporate income, excise, and military levies on labour income—valued at 1.6% of GDP. The large deficits will push public debt to around 110% of GDP in 2025, with three-quarters of new debt raised externally. External grants are expected to finance 1% of GDP. External financial support of USD 27.2 billion in 2024 (up to mid-November) and military and humanitarian aid of USD 32.7 billion in 2024 (up to September 1) have helped maintain foreign exchange reserves and stabilize the exchange rate against USD between July and late November 2024. Meanwhile, inflation accelerated to 12% in 2024, driven by groceries as well as electricity (data National Bank), and is expected to converge towards the central bank’s 5% target in the medium term.

The average unemployment rate was estimated at 14.2% in 2024 by the IMF, from 19.1% one year earlier. However, the International Organization for Migration (IOM) released a report highlighting the impact of nearly three years of war on Ukraine’s employment, mobility, and labour market. The report found that recently displaced individuals were more likely to be unemployed (24%) compared to those displaced for over a year (13%), reflecting the challenges of economic integration for newcomers lacking networks and resources. Poverty in Ukraine increased by 1.8 million in 2023 due to reduced employment and incomes. Despite labour market slowdowns, social assistance programs helped, with 20% of households receiving conflict-related support (World Bank). The situation remains difficult, as only 40% of adults were employed in Q3 2024, and more than half of households reported worse financial well-being compared to February 2023.

 
Main Indicators 2023 (E)2024 (E)2025 (E)2026 (E)2027 (E)
GDP (billions USD) 178.34184.10189.83207.40221.25
GDP (Constant Prices, Annual % Change) 5.33.02.55.34.5
GDP per Capita (USD) 5,2415,5055,7596,0676,412
General Government Balance (in % of GDP) 0.00.00.00.00.0
General Government Gross Debt (in % of GDP) 82.395.6106.6107.6102.6
Inflation Rate (%) 12.95.89.07.75.0
Unemployment Rate (% of the Labour Force) 19.114.212.710.49.4
Current Account (billions USD) -9.66-14.95-27.14-21.75-12.97
Current Account (in % of GDP) -5.4-8.1-14.3-10.5-5.9

Source: IMF – World Economic Outlook Database , October 2021

Country Risk

See the country risk analysis provided by La Coface.

 

+

Main Sectors of Industry

The agricultural sector plays a major role in the Ukrainian economy. In 2023, it contributed to 7.4% of the GDP and employed 14% of the working population (World Bank, latest data available). With over 55% of its land designated as arable, Ukraine predominantly relies on agricultural products as its key exports. The country stands as a leading global agricultural producer and exporter, holding a vital position in providing oilseeds and grains to the international market (being one of the world's largest exporters of grain).  The main crops are cereals, sugar, meat and milk. Furthermore, the country is rich in mineral resources, mainly iron, magnesium and rare earths, as well as in energy resources (coal and gas). However, the agriculture sector in Ukraine has suffered significant damage due to Russia's invasion, leading to a reduction in export capacity, the destruction of infrastructure and farmland, and a rise in fuel and input expenses. Despite the challenges, in 2024, Ukraine's agricultural exports hit USD 24.5 billion, making up 59% of total exports. This was the second-highest record after 2021’s USD 27.7 billion, nearing pre-war levels (data Agriculture Ministry).

The secondary sector employs around a quarter of the active population and accounts for 18.8% of the GDP (World Bank). The Ukrainian manufacturing sector is dominated by heavy industries such as iron (Ukraine is the world's seventh-largest producer of iron) and steel. These two sectors alone account for around 30% of the industrial production; however, steel production is below its pre-2008 level. Coal mining, chemicals, mechanical products (aircraft, turbines, locomotives and tractors) and shipbuilding are also important sectors. According to the State Statistics Service, Ukraine’s industrial production grew 4.9% in January-September 2024 vs. the same period in 2023. Steel and finished products rose 25.9%, while iron ore mining increased 22.7% y/y. However, production growth slowed due to rising electricity tariffs, logistics costs, and labour shortages from mobilization.

The service sector employs 61% of the workforce and contributes to 61.3% of the GDP (World Bank). Ukraine is a country of energy transit, historically transporting Russian and Caspian oil and gas to Western Europe and the Balkans, through its territory. Nevertheless, in the context of the conflict with Russia, Ukraine’s role as the main transit corridor has diminished, with Russia seeking alternative routes. After suffering from the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, Ukrainian economic sectors were further hit by the consequences of Russia’s invasion. The massive infrastructure and facilities destructions, as well as mobilisation, disrupted activity, especially in the tourism sector. In contrast, Ukraine's banking sector remained remarkably resilient even after the start of the war and serves as a crucial pillar supporting the real economy. Foreign aid, high bond yields, soldier pay raises, and central bank policies post-invasion have driven banking sector profits: as of November 18, 2024, Ukrainian banks posted a net profit of UAH 117.63 billion for the first nine months of the year, up 7% y/y, according to the NBU. PrivatBank led with 41% of total sector profits, while MTB Bank saw the fastest growth, with profits surging 13 times year-over-year.

 
Breakdown of Economic Activity By Sector Agriculture Industry Services
Employment By Sector (in % of Total Employment) 14.1 25.2 60.7
Value Added (in % of GDP) 7.4 18.8 61.3
Value Added (Annual % Change) 7.6 6.8 5.0

Source: World Bank - Latest available data.

 
Monetary Indicators 20162017201820192020
Ukrainian Hryvnia (UAH) - Average Annual Exchange Rate For 1 USD 25.5526.6027.2025.8026.96

Source: World Bank - Latest available data.

 

+

Foreign Trade

Ukraine is a very open economy, with a share of foreign trade in the country's GDP of 78% in 2023 (World Bank). In the same year, the main exported products were sunflower-seed, safflower or cotton-seed oil (13.8% - the country being the n.1 exporter worldwide), maize or corn (13.7%), wheat and meslin (8.1%), iron ores and concentrates (4.9%), and soya beans (3.5%); whereas imports were led by petroleum oils (12.3%), motor vehicles (6.4%), petroleum gas (3.0%), medicaments (2.7%), and telephone sets (1.8% - data Comtrade).

Foreign trade has been hardly hit by the conflict with Russia, which has traditionally been a major supplier of oil and gas, accounting for almost a quarter of the country's total imports. Ukraine is seeking to develop its trade relations with the member states of the European Union, with a view to emancipating from Russia. The EU and Ukraine have provisionally applied their Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Agreement (CCFTA) since January 2016. Furthermore, prior to the war, maritime transport had served as the primary export route for Ukrainian commodities, accounting for both value and volume. However, with the onset of the war, there was a shift, and road and rail transport saw increased importance, therefore Ukraine's land border crossings with EU countries, predominantly Poland, emerged as the primary routes for Ukrainian exports. In 2023, Poland was the main export destination  (13.2% of the total), followed by Romania (10.4%), China (6.7%), Türkiye (6.5%), Germany (5.6%), Spain (5.5%), and Italy (4.2%). On the other hand, Ukraine's main suppliers were China (16.4%), Poland (10.3%), Germany (8.0%), Türkiye (7.4%), and the United States (4.5% - data Comtrade).

According to WTO data, Ukraine exported USD 36 billion and imported USD 63.5 billion worth of goods in 2023 (-18.3% and +14.9%, respectively); whereas exports of services were stable at USD 16.4 billion and imports lost 9%, totalling USD 25.1 billion. Therefore, the deficit of the external balance on goods and services plummeted to 20.9% of GDP in 2023, way higher than the levels recorded before the conflict (World Bank). In 2024, Ukraine’s trade turnover grew by 13% to USD 112.3 billion, up from USD 99.4 billion in 2023, according to the State Customs Service. The country imported USD 70.7 billion in goods and exported USD 41.6 billion. Of the imports, 65% were machines, equipment, and transport (USD 25 billion), chemical industry products (USD 11.7 billion), and fuel and energy products (USD 8.9 billion). The top three exports were food products (USD 24.6 billion), metals and steel products (USD 4.4 billion), and mineral machinery, equipment, and transport (USD 3.5 billion).

 
Foreign Trade Values 20192020202120222023
Imports of Goods (million USD) 60,80054,33772,84355,29463,527
Exports of Goods (million USD) 50,05449,19268,07344,13436,040
Imports of Services (million USD) 15,71511,16414,42027,70325,189
Exports of Services (million USD) 17,46515,56418,39116,61816,401

Source: World Trade Organisation (WTO) ; Latest available data

Foreign Trade Indicators 20192020202120222023
Foreign Trade (in % of GDP) 90.579.282.787.478.1
Trade Balance (million USD) -14,261-6,778-6,642-14,652-28,795
Trade Balance (Including Service) (million USD) -12,511-2,378-2,671-25,737-37,737
Imports of Goods and Services (Annual % Change) 5.7-6.414.2-17.48.5
Exports of Goods and Services (Annual % Change) 7.3-5.8-8.6-42.0-5.4
Imports of Goods and Services (in % of GDP) 49.340.342.052.049.5
Exports of Goods and Services (in % of GDP) 41.238.840.735.428.6

Source: World Bank ; Latest available data

Foreign Trade Forecasts 20242025 (e)2026 (e)2027 (e)2028 (e)
Volume of exports of goods and services (Annual % change) 15.76.214.06.39.9
Volume of imports of goods and services (Annual % change) 14.17.08.89.53.4

Source: IMF, World Economic Outlook ; Latest available data

Note: (e) Estimated Data

 
International Economic Cooperation
Ukraine is a member of the following international economic organisations: Organization for Democracy and Economic Development (GUAM), IMF, Black Sea Economic Cooperation Zone (BSEC), WTO, Eurasian Economic Community (EAEC) (observer), among others. For the full list of economic and other international organisations in which participates Ukraine click here. International organisation membership of Ukraine is also outlined here.
Free Trade Agreements
The complete and up-to-date list of Free Trade Agreements signed by Ukraine can be consulted here.
 

Main Partner Countries

Main Customers
(% of Exports)		 2023
Poland 13.2%
Romania 10.4%
China 6.7%
Türkiye 6.5%
Germany 5.6%
See More Countries 57.7%
Main Suppliers
(% of Imports)		 2023
China 16.4%
Poland 10.3%
Germany 8.0%
Türkiye 7.4%
United States 4.5%
See More Countries 53.3%

Source: Comtrade, Latest Available Data

 

+

Political Outline

Current Political Leaders
President: Volodymyr Zelensky (since 20 May 2019)
Prime Minister: Denys Shmyhal (since 4 March 2020)
Next Election Dates
Presidential: still to be defined as the Ukrainian government has enacted martial law, and Ukrainian law does not allow elections to be held when martial law is in effect
Supreme Council: the electoral procedure ought to occur within a month after lifting the state of martial law, which was implemented in 2022 in response to the Russian invasion
Current Political Context
On February 24th 2022, Russia initiated a military conflict on the Ukrainian territory, which profoundly upsets the current political context in both countries and will have substantial political and economic ramifications. For the ongoing updates on the developments of Russia-Ukraine conflict please consult the dedicated pages on BBC News.

Following Russia’s invasion in February 2022, Ukraine's government declared martial law, mobilised its armed forces and called on citizens to resist. Western countries adopted an unprecedented range of sanctions against Russia and provided significant financial and humanitarian support, training and weapons to Ukraine. Ukraine launched its biggest counteroffensive in an effort to retake captured regions in the summer of 2024, further intensifying the conflict. However, issues including weak supply lines and a lack of personnel made it less successful. The United States persisted in offering significant military assistance, including cutting-edge equipment and instruction. However, internal disputes and logistical difficulties caused aid shipments to be delayed in the last year of the Biden administration, which had an impact on Ukraine's operational capabilities. In October 2024, the EU and its G7 partners decided to provide USD 50 billion to Ukraine to help with its humanitarian, military, and fiscal needs. In November, President Joe Biden authorized Ukraine to use powerful long-range American weapons inside Russia, while in September, the EU Parliament passed a resolution calling on member states to allow Ukraine to strike “legitimate military targets on Russian territory” with its own weapons.
Significant changes in the U.S. strategy for the Russo-Ukrainian conflict are expected as Donald Trump takes over as president. In the event that a ceasefire with Russia is reached, the administration is pushing for Ukraine to hold elections before the end of the year. Ukrainian officials, however, have voiced their reservations and called this idea a "failed plan" if it does not include full security guarantees to stop Russian aggression in the future. They contend that the current martial law makes elections impossible and emphasize the necessity of a stronger plan from important allies. In his initial week in office, President Trump halted foreign aid, adding to uncertainties about continued support for Ukraine. Trump has also indicated a desire to negotiate directly with Russian President Vladimir Putin to achieve a significant resolution to the conflict. Furthermore, Trump criticized Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy for not making a deal with Putin to avoid the war and has mocked Ukraine's reliance on U.S. aid. This approach suggests a potential shift towards bilateral negotiations, possibly sidelining Ukrainian interests. Furthermore, Trump's administration has proposed a ceasefire based on current frontlines, aiming to force both sides into peace talks.

Main Political Parties
Among the main parties represented in parliament stand:

- Servant of the people: founded in 2016 under the name of Party of decisive change, then renamed according to the comic television series whose main character is Volodymyr Zelensky
- European Solidarity (YeS): pro-European, it is the largest opposition party in the parliament
- All-Ukrainian Union "Fatherland" (Batkivshchyna): centrist, advocates for social justice, economic development, and closer ties with the European Union
- Voice (Holos): center-right, founded in 2019 by singer Sviatoslav Vakartchouk
- For the Future (ZM): centre-right, it is known for its close ties to the Ukrainian oligarch Ihor Kolomoyskyi
- Trust (Dovira): supports the ruling coalition
- Platform for Life and Peace: pro-Russian, it was a new parliamentary group formed after the Opposition Platform – For Life was banned due to allegations of having ties to Russia. On 20 June 2023, the party was banned by court
- Restoration of Ukraine: parliamentary group founded in 2022, cross-party alliance dedicated to rebuilding and revitalizing the country in the aftermath of the ongoing Russian invasion.
Executive Power
The President is the head of state and is elected by universal suffrage for five years. He is the commander-in-chief of the army and nominates the Prime Minister – the head of government – who must then be approved by Parliament as the leader of the party or the majority coalition. The Prime Minister does not have a fixed five-year term and serves as long as they maintain parliamentary support. Executive power is shared between the President and the Prime Minister. The President chooses the Minister of Defense and the Minister of Foreign Affairs, while the other ministers of the Council are nominated by the Prime Minister and approved by Parliament.
Legislative Power
The legislature in Ukraine is unicameral. The parliament, called the Verkhovna Rada (Supreme Council), consists of 450 seats, with its members chosen on a proportional basis from parties that gain 5% or more of the national electoral vote; members serve five-year terms. The President has the power to dissolve the Supreme Council under certain conditions, such as if it fails to form a government within the constitutional timeframe. The people of Ukraine have full political rights, including the ability to vote, form political parties, and participate in governance.
 

+