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Economic and political overview

Economic Overview

Thailand is the second-largest economy in Southeast Asia after Indonesia, and with an upper-middle income status, serves as an economic anchor for its developing neighbour countries. Thailand’s economy continues to recover gradually from the COVID-19 shock: economic activity expanded by 2.5% in 2024 and by 2.4% in 2025 (NESDC). Private consumption, which drives over half of overall growth, slowed to 1.9% year-on-year in Q2 2026 from 3.3% the previous quarter, amid high household debt, tighter credit, and weak medium-term prospects. Tourism, once contributing 12-17% of GDP before the pandemic, reached only 8.9% of GDP by the end of 2024, with arrivals slipping to 32.97 million in 2025 despite a global tourism recovery. Investment has not yet become a key driver of recovery or medium-term growth. Thailand’s growth gap with ASEAN peers remains significant, equivalent to 8-14% of GDP in lost output since recovering to pre-COVID levels. Growth is expected to come in at 2.0-2.5% in 2026, with a midpoint of 2.2%, supported by fiscal stimulus and increased public investment under the FY2026 budget. Private consumption should remain strong, driven by government measures, while private investment is set to rise, boosted by public spending and growing FDI inflows.

According to the World Bank, the FY24 deficit (Oct 2023–Sep 2024) fell to a 5-year low of 2.5% of GDP, driven by improved revenue collection from economic recovery and lower capital spending due to a seven-month budget delay. Investment budget disbursement reached 70%, below the 74% average of the past three years. Public debt hit 66.9% of GDP (THB 12.9 trillion) at the end of March 2026 and is expected to rise further with a widening deficit, fueled by increased spending, especially on fiscal stimulus and cash handouts. In September, the deficit widened due to accelerated spending, including a THB 10,000 cash handout for 14 million Social Welfare Card holders. Household debt surged from 40% of GDP in 2003 to 90% in 2020, driven by financial liberalization, pro-consumption policies (e.g., first car and home incentives, rice-pledging scheme), and income shocks (2011 floods, 2013-14 protests, pandemic). By Q2 2024, debt declined to 90.7% of GDP from a peak of 95.8% as households deleveraged post-pandemic. However, it remains a key financial sector risk due to both its high level and the large share of uncollateralized consumer loans in bank portfolios. Thailand's average consumer price index (CPI) fell by 0.14% in 2025 year-on-year, the first annual decline in five years, according to the Commerce Ministry. The NESDC sees inflation at 1.5-2.0% in 2026, returning to the authorities’ target range (1 to 3%).

The unemployment rate remained very low in Q2 2026 (0.96%) and is projected to stay around 1% over the forecast horizon (NESDC). Thailand's official unemployment rate is among the lowest in the world due to the low birth rate, lack of social insurance and informal sector employing the bulk of the workforce (street vendors, motorbike taxis and self-employed). The country’s average GDP per capita (PPP) was estimated at USD 26,250 in 2025 by the World Bank. Thailand has made the most progress in ASEAN on eradicating poverty in recent years: poverty is estimated to have fallen to 8.2% in 2024, driven by stronger growth, easing inflation, and a one-time cash transfer to 14.6 million state welfare cardholders under the Digital Wallet program, which likely boosted consumption. Inequality also declined by about 1.5 Gini points (World Bank). However, sustaining progress will require addressing climate-related risks, such as recent flooding, and structural challenges related to demographics and labour incomes.

 
Main Indicators 20252026 (E)2027 (E)2028 (E)2029 (E)
GDP (billions USD) 577.01580.00584.05599.26622.61
GDP (Constant Prices, Annual % Change) 2.41.52.12.32.5
GDP per Capita (USD) 8,0578,1058,1708,3928,730
General Government Balance (in % of GDP) -1.9-2.2-1.9-2.0-2.2
General Government Gross Debt (in % of GDP) 64.766.867.868.669.1
Inflation Rate (%) -0.10.91.01.21.4
Current Account (billions USD) 17.724.118.2311.4214.42
Current Account (in % of GDP) 3.10.71.41.92.3

Source: IMF – World Economic Outlook Database , Latest data available

Country Risk

See the country risk analysis provided by La Coface.

 

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Main Sectors of Industry

Thailand has a labour force of 40.2 million people, out of its 71.6 million population. Its economy is heavily based on agriculture, which contributes 8.6% of the GDP and employs 30% of the active population (World Bank, latest data available). The country is the largest producer of natural rubber in the world and one of the leading producers and exporters of rice; it also includes sugar, corn, jute, cotton and tobacco among its major crops. Fishing constitutes an important activity as Thailand is a major exporter of farmed shrimp. Traditional farming methods are prevalent, but there's a growing emphasis on modernizing agriculture through technology adoption, such as precision farming and irrigation systems. Thailand's agricultural and agro-industrial product exports contracted by 0.4% in 2025, after reaching USD 52.19 billion in 2024, according to the Thai Trade Policy and Strategy Office (TPSO).

The manufacturing sector accounts for 32.9% of the GDP and is well diversified, employing 22% of the active population (World Bank). The country has established itself as a manufacturing hub in Southeast Asia, attracting foreign investment due to its strategic location, skilled workforce, and robust infrastructure. The Thai industrial sector is diverse and dynamic, encompassing manufacturing, electronics, automotive, and petrochemicals among its key sectors. Emerging sectors within the industrial landscape include renewable energy, biotechnology, and aerospace, reflecting Thailand's efforts to move towards high-value-added industries and technological innovation. Over the first ten months of 2025, the manufacturing production index contracted by 0.8% year-on-year, improving from the 1.79% decline recorded in 2024.

The tertiary sector contributes to 58.5% of the GDP and employs 48% of the active population (World Bank). Key sectors include tourism, finance, healthcare, education, and telecommunications. Thailand's tourism industry is a major driver of the tertiary sector, attracting millions of visitors annually: according to official governmental figures, the country welcomed nearly 33 million international visitors in 2025 (32.97 million, down on the previous year), generating an income of THB 1.53 trillion. The finance sector, centred in Bangkok, serves as a regional financial hub, offering a wide range of banking, insurance, and investment services. Healthcare and education are also prominent sectors, with Thailand being a destination for medical tourism and home to reputable universities and international schools. Emerging areas within the tertiary sector include digital services, e-commerce, and fintech.

 
Breakdown of Economic Activity By Sector Agriculture Industry Services
Employment By Sector (in % of Total Employment) 28.56 22.24 49.21
Value Added (in % of GDP) 8.75 31.07 60.18
Value Added (Annual % Change) 3.65 0.81 3.14

Source: World Bank - Latest available data.

 
Monetary Indicators 20212022202320242025
Thailand Baht (THB) - Average Annual Exchange Rate For 1 USD 31.9835.0634.8035.2932.88

Source: World Bank - Latest available data.

 

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Foreign Trade

Thailand is an emerging economy and active member of ASEAN; it is very open to international trade, which represents around 138% of its GDP in 2025 (World Bank). According to figures from Comtrade, in 2025, the country’s main exports were computers (6.7%), telephone sets (5.1%), gold (3.8%), electronic integrated circuits (3.3%), goods vehicles (3.0%), motor cars (2.9%), and parts and accessories for motor vehicles (2.9%); whereas imports mostly comprised electronic integrated circuits (10.1%), crude oil (7.7%), gold (6.1%), telephone sets (3.2%), and petroleum gas (2.4%).

In 2025, the country's main export partners were the U.S. (21.3%), China (11.7%), Japan (6.9%), India (4.7%), and Malaysia (4.0%). Conversely, imports came chiefly from China (31.4%), Japan (8.6%), Taiwan (7.5%), the U.S. (6.1%), and the United Arab Emirates (4.9% - data Comtrade). Thailand has signed numerous free trade agreements. In 2020, Thailand signed the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) with 14 other Indo-Pacific countries. This free trade agreement is the largest trade deal in history, covering 30 per cent of the global economy. It includes the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN: Brunei, Cambodia, Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia, Myanmar, Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, and Vietnam) and ASEAN’s free trade agreement partners (Australia, China, India, Japan, New Zealand and the Republic of Korea). The RCEP covers goods, services, investment, economic and technical cooperation. It also creates new rules for electronic commerce, intellectual property, government procurement, competition, and small and medium-sized enterprises.

According to WTO data, Thailand exported USD 339.6 billion worth of goods in 2025 (+12.9% year-on-year), compared with USD 344.9 billion in imports (+12.9%). Concerning services, exports stood at USD 76.2 billion against USD 77.2 billion in imports (+5.9% and +4.4%, respectively). The country had a structurally positive trade balance; however, the balance has been fluctuating in recent years. According to preliminary figures by the Ministry of Commerce, throughout 2025, the kingdom's exports grew by 12.9% to USD 339,635.0 million, while imports also rose by 12.9% to USD 344,943.0 million, leading to a trade deficit of USD 5,307.9 million.

 
Foreign Trade Values 20212022202320242025
Imports of Goods (million USD) 267,343301,030288,509305,523344,943
Exports of Goods (million USD) 272,006287,425285,074300,740339,635
Imports of Services (million USD) 57,94962,82265,63573,96577,193
Exports of Services (million USD) 24,62638,77857,77971,91876,185

Source: World Trade Organisation (WTO) ; Latest available data

Foreign Trade Indicators 20212022202320242025
Foreign Trade (in % of GDP) 117.1132.8128.8135.7138.4
Trade Balance (million USD) 31,94513,54319,19021,35923,339
Trade Balance (Including Service) (million USD) -1,378-10,50011,33419,31222,330
Imports of Goods and Services (Annual % Change) 17.93.4-2.55.76.7
Exports of Goods and Services (Annual % Change) 11.16.42.77.59.2
Imports of Goods and Services (in % of GDP) 58.767.563.366.167.3
Exports of Goods and Services (in % of GDP) 58.465.365.569.771.1

Source: World Bank ; Latest available data

Foreign Trade Forecasts 2026 (e)2027 (e)2028 (e)2029 (e)2030 (e)
Volume of exports of goods and services (Annual % change) -0.22.92.93.02.9
Volume of imports of goods and services (Annual % change) 0.52.72.62.62.7

Source: IMF, World Economic Outlook ; Latest available data

Note: (e) Estimated Data

 
International Economic Cooperation
Thailand is a member of the following international economic organisations: IMF, Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), ICC, Colombo Plan, WTO, Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC), G-77, among others. For the full list of economic and other international organisations in which participates Thailand click here. International organisation membership of Thailand is also outlined here.
Free Trade Agreements
Thailand is a member of Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) signed on 15 November 2020. The complete and up-to-date list of Free Trade Agreements signed by Thailand can be consulted here.
 

Main Partner Countries

Main Customers
(% of Exports)		 2024
United States 18.3%
China 11.7%
Japan 7.7%
Malaysia 4.1%
Australia 4.1%
See More Countries 54.0%
Main Suppliers
(% of Imports)		 2024
China 26.2%
Japan 9.3%
United States 6.4%
United Arab Emirates 5.6%
Malaysia 4.5%
See More Countries 47.9%

Source: Comtrade, Latest Available Data

 

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Political Outline

Current Political Leaders
King: Maha Vajiralongkorn, Rama X (since 13 October 2016) – hereditary
Prime Minister: Anutin Charnvirakul (since 5 September 2025)
Next Election Dates
House of Representatives: February 2030
Senate: June 2029
Main Political Parties
Thailand maintains a multi-party system, but traditional political parties have seen their role reduced in the parliament since the military-led coup in 2014. Currently, the main parties represented in the House of Representatives are:

- Pheu Thai Party (PTP); centre-right, it won 74 seats at the 8 February 2026 election and sits in the ruling coalition.
- People's Party (PPLE): Centre-left, it is the successor party of the former Move Forward Party, which was dissolved by the Constitutional Court in August 2024; with 120 seats it is the main opposition party.
- Bhumjaithai: Centrist, focusing on rural interests; it won 192 of the 500 seats at the 8 February 2026 election and leads the ruling coalition.
- United Thai Nation: Nationalist, advocating for Thai interests.
- Democrat: Center-right.
- Palang Pracharat: Right-wing, supportive of the military establishment.
- Kla Tham: Center-right
- Chart Thai Pattana Party: Regionalist emphasizing agricultural policies.
- Prachachart: Populist focusing on grassroots issues.
- Thai Sang Thai: Nationalist.

Executive Power

Thailand is governed by a constitutional monarchy. The King is the Chief of State, and the monarchy is hereditary. Traditionally, the King has little direct political power but benefits from enormous popular respect and moral authority, which has occasionally been used to resolve political crises and ensure national stability. Official power rests with the government.
The Prime Minister is the Head of Government and holds executive powers, including the implementation of laws and the management of the country's day-to-day affairs. Under the Constitution approved in April 2017, individuals outside of parliament can serve as Prime Minister. The cabinet is appointed by the King on the recommendation of the Prime Minister.
Thailand’s 76 provinces, each administered by an appointed Governor, are divided into districts, sub-districts (tambons), and villages. Bangkok, which is a special administrative area with the status of a province, is governed by an elected Governor.
Legislative Power
The legislature in Thailand is bicameral, with the parliament being the National Assembly. It consists of the Senate (the upper house) with 200 seats, its members selected in June 2024 by and from among candidates in 20 occupational groups for a five-year term. The House of Representatives (the lower house) has 500 seats, with its members elected by popular vote to serve four-year terms. Of these, 400 are directly elected through single constituency elections, and 100 are elected through party-list proportional representation. The executive branch of government is directly or indirectly dependent on the support of the parliament, often expressed through a vote of confidence. The government cannot veto acts passed by parliament.
 

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