Economic Overview
For the latest updates on the key economic responses from governments to address the economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, please consult the IMF's policy tracking platform Policy Responses to COVID-19.
Slovenia has been an open market since its successful economic transition in the 2000s. As a member of the European Union since May 2004 and of the Eurozone since 2007, Slovenia is an advanced, independent, and stable country. After contracting due to the COVID-19 pandemic, Slovenia’s GDP rebounded in 2021 and continued its positive trend in 2022, when growth was estimated at 5.7% according to the IMF (5.1% as per the EU Commission figures), as private consumption continued to increase and investments proved robust. On the other hand, the trade balance in goods turned negative, with an export-import ratio of 93.2% (Statistics Slovenia). Global economic uncertainty and the tightening of financial conditions should hamper growth in 2023, with the IMF forecasting a GDP increase of 1.7%, while the EU Commission has a more conservative outlook (+1%). Investment is forecast to continue growing, sustained by EU RRF-supported public investments. For 2024, the IMF projects growth at 3%.
Strong revenue performance and some under-execution in spending helped reduce the budget deficit from 6% of GDP in 2021 to 3.9% last year. Around 2% of GDP has been budgeted in emergency measures for 2023 (mostly related to the rise in energy prices), with the government deficit projected at 3.2%. Conversely, the country’s debt-to-GDP ratio went down to 69.5% in 2022 (from 74.4% one year earlier) and is expected to follow a downward trend over the forecast horizon (at 66.7% this year and 63.6% in 2024 - IMF) supported by GDP growth. Sound debt management and long average maturities (10 years) significantly reduce financing risks (Fitch Ratings). Fuelled by the rise in energy prices and the consequent spill-over on industrial goods, food and services, inflation spiked in 2022 reaching 8.9%. With global energy prices easing and growth remaining weak, headline inflation is projected to decrease to 5.1% in 2023 and 3.3% the following year, closer to the European Central Bank’s target.
Unemployment has been on a declining trend in recent years: it was estimated at 4.3% in 2022 and should remain stable in the upcoming future. The EU Commission expects wage growth to be robust in 2023, partly compensating for the increased cost of living. According to the latest data from Eurostat, 13.2% of the population is at risk of poverty or social exclusion, the second-lowest ratio in the EU. Nevertheless, poverty amongst the senior population, consisting of mostly women and marginalized minorities, is an area of severe concern; to address this, the government deployed a specific strategy for elder people. Overall, the IMF estimated the country’s GDP per capita (PPP) at USD 49,968 in 2022.
| Main Indicators | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 (E) | 2023 (E) | 2024 (E) |
| GDP (billions USD) | 53.66 | 61.79 | 62.17 | 68.11 | 72.12 |
| GDP (Constant Prices, Annual % Change) | -4.3 | 8.2 | 5.4 | 1.6 | 2.1 |
| GDP per Capita (USD) | 25,605 | 29,298 | 29,502 | 32,215 | 34,089 |
| General Government Balance (in % of GDP) | -6.3 | -5.4 | -4.5 | -4.3 | -2.5 |
| General Government Gross Debt (in % of GDP) | 79.6 | 74.5 | 70.2 | 67.7 | 65.9 |
| Inflation Rate (%) | -0.1 | 1.9 | 8.8 | 6.4 | 4.5 |
| Unemployment Rate (% of the Labour Force) | 5.0 | 4.7 | 4.0 | 3.9 | 4.0 |
| Current Account (billions USD) | 4.05 | 2.35 | -0.26 | 0.23 | 0.54 |
| Current Account (in % of GDP) | 7.6 | 3.8 | -0.4 | 0.3 | 0.8 |
Source: IMF – World Economic Outlook Database , October 2021
Country Risk
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