Economic Overview

The economy of Serbia experienced rapid growth from 2001–2008, although the global financial crisis hit hard on the country’s economy, showing its structural weaknesses and the need for a full transition to a market economy. Despite turning into negative territory in 2020 as a consequence of the COVID-19 crisis, Serbia’s GDP rebounded strongly in 2021 (+7.4%) and continued its positive trend in 2022 and 2023 (+2.3% and +2.5%, respectively). The country’s real GDP grew by 3.9% in 2024, making it Europe's second-fastest-growing economy after Malta, according to the Serbian Chamber of Commerce and Industry, thanks to a better-than-expected performance of the construction and services sectors. According to the World Bank, Serbia's economy is projected to grow by around 4% in the medium term, driven mainly by consumption and partly by investment. Risks include potential negative impacts of climate change on agriculture and infrastructure.

Serbia's consolidated budget deficit expanded to SRD 191.860 billion (EUR 1.64 billion) in 2024, up from SRD 181.095 billion the previous year, according to the Ministry of Finance. Budget revenue increased by a real 8.5% to SRD 3.941 trillion, while expenditures grew by 8.1% to SRD 4.133 trillion. Tax revenue rose by 8.6% in real terms to SRD 3.497 trillion, while non-tax revenue increased by 14.7% to SRD 422 billion. Current expenditures grew by 8.1% to SRD 3.379 trillion, while capital expenditures surged by 18.5% to SRD 704.65 billion. Looking ahead, the fiscal deficit is now expected to increase, as the government has effectively suspended fiscal rules until 2029 to support large-scale public infrastructure spending. Serbia's public debt-to-GDP ratio declined to 47.4% by December 2024, down from 48% at the end of 2023, according to the finance ministry. In absolute terms, public debt rose to EUR 38.874 billion (USD 40.128 billion) by the end of 2024, up from EUR 36.153 billion the previous year. Over the forecast horizon, debt reduction will be supported by robust nominal GDP growth and primary deficits averaging 0.4%. In 2024, consumer prices rose by an average of 4.6% compared to 2023, according to the statistical office, and are expected to decrease gradually and remain within the NBS target range. Meanwhile, negotiations for EU membership continued: as of December 2024, Serbia has opened 22 negotiation chapters, with progress varying across different sectors. ​However, Serbia's accession process faces challenges, notably its stance on Russia and the normalization of relations with Kosovo. In November 2024, Hungary's proposal to advance Serbia's accession talks was blocked due to disagreements, including Serbia's refusal to impose sanctions on Russia. ​Additionally, Serbia's lack of progress in areas like good governance, rule of law, and alignment with EU foreign policy standards has impeded its EU accession path. 

Serbia's unemployment rate, relatively low compared to its neighbours in the Balkans, remains significantly higher than the European average: in 2024, it stood at 9.1%, with a marginal decrease expected in the next couple of years (8.9% by 2026 as per the IMF projections). In 2024, Serbia's average net monthly wage rose by 9.1% in real terms and 14.1% in nominal terms, reaching SRD 98,143 (USD 878 / EUR 838), according to the statistical office. The standard of living of the Serbian population remains significantly below the EU average and the country's informal sector is substantial. However, the authorities have the support of the EU and international financial institutions to modernize infrastructure and support investment in the business community. The World Bank estimates that the incidence of poverty declined to an estimated 6.9% in 2023 (latest data available), while the GDP per capita (PPP) stood at USD 29,038 in 2024 (IMF).

Foreign Trade

Serbia is gradually becoming more open to international trade, which represents 114% of GDP (World Bank, latest data available). The Stabilization and Association Agreement between the EU and Serbia and the steady growth of foreign direct investment inflows have led to a constant increase in the volume of foreign trade. The country’s main exports in 2023 were electrical machines and apparatus (12.6%), power engines and motors (5.8%), metal ores and residues (5.5%), electricity (4.4%), other general-purpose machinery (4.1%); whereas imports were led by electrical machines and apparatus (6.8%), oil and oil derivatives (6.6%), road vehicles (4.5%), other general-purpose machinery (4.0%), medical and pharmaceutical products (4.0% - data Statistical Office of the Republic of Serbia).

In 2023, the country's main customers were Germany (15.1%), Bosnia and Herzegovina (6.9%), Italy (6.2%), Hungary (5.5%), and Romania (5%); with imports coming chiefly from Germany (13.1%), China (12.2%), Italy (7.3%), Turkey (4.7%), and the Russian Federation (4.3% - data Statistical Office). European Union member countries account for 59.7% of total external trade. By region, Serbia's largest export share came from Vojvodina (33.5%), followed by Beogradski region (24.2%), Šumadija and Western Serbia (20.7%), Southern and Eastern Serbia (19.4%), while about 2.3% was unclassified by territory (data Statistical Office).

Serbia has a structural trade deficit that amounted to 4.3% of GDP in 2023, according to the World Bank (from 6.4% one year earlier). A large portion of the deficit is due to investment-related imports. In 2023, exports of merchandise stood at USD 30.9 billion (-3.1% y-o-y), against USD 39.8 billion in imports (+21.7% y-o-y). In the same year, Serbia exported USD 14.1 billion worth of services, importing USD 10.8 billion (data WTO).  According to figures from the Serbian statistical office, the trade deficit increased by 19.9% y-o-y in 2024, reaching EUR 9.865 billion (USD 10.234 billion) compared to the previous year. According to the statistics office, exports grew by 1.8% year-on-year to EUR 29.162 billion, while imports rose by 5.9% to EUR 39.028 billion.