Economic Overview
After registering a decade of strong growth, the Senegalese economy was impacted by the Covid-19 pandemic but was amongst the minority of economies that managed to avoid recession. In 2023, domestic unrest and regional political tensions disrupted consumption and investment, affecting sectors like manufacturing, agriculture, and retail. As a result, economic growth was limited to +4.6%, still below pre-pandemic levels, according to the IMF. Senegal's economy showed resilience in 2024, with preliminary estimates indicating a real GDP growth of about 6%, driven by strong performance in the hydrocarbon sector. The IMF expects growth to accelerate to around 9% in 2025 driven by the development of the country’s hydrocarbon resources, before slowing to 4.9% the following year.
Concerning public finances, the authorities remain steadfast in their commitment to achieving fiscal consolidation objectives. However, the fiscal deficit reached 11.7% of GDP, while central government debt was preliminarily estimated at 105.7% of GDP by the end of 2024. Financing conditions have tightened due to constrained regional markets, delays in donor support, and greater reliance on expensive short-term external borrowing. These challenges underscore the need for a credible fiscal consolidation strategy. Moreover, in February 2025, the Court of Auditors' audit revealed significant revisions to Senegal's fiscal data for 2019–2023. The average fiscal deficit was revised upward by 5.6 percentage points of GDP, and central government debt increased from 74.4% to 99.7% of GDP by the end of 2023. These revisions primarily reflected previously undisclosed liabilities, including hidden loans equivalent to 25.3% of GDP. Following the discovery, the country’s authorities have expressed their intention to request a new IMF-supported program and are focused on implementing the revised Emerging Senegal Plan (PSE), whose objective is to promote strong and inclusive private sector-led growth through structural transformation and diversification, with a new emphasis on accelerating the domestic production of critical supplies through sectoral policies (IMF). Increasing revenue mobilization, rebuilding fiscal buffers, putting public debt on a downward path, improving the business environment, enhancing the social safety net, broadening access to quality education, addressing youth unemployment, and tackling financial system weaknesses are among the key challenges identified by the IMF. Meanwhile, inflation remained low in 2024, averaging 0.8%, fostering a stable price environment.
According to the World Bank, if PSE reforms continue, the poor layer of the Senegalese population would progressively be able to access high-growth or value-added sectors, such as horticulture or agricultural processing. In 2023, the unemployment rate of the country was at 2.8% (World Bank, ILO estimate). Several statistical studies conducted by the ANSD indicate that nearly 97% of economic units operate informally, with 96.4% of the active population engaged in the informal sector, encompassing both urban and rural areas. Overall, poverty (using the low middle-income poverty line) remained stable at around 36.3% in 2023 (World Bank), while the country’s GDP per capita (PPP) was estimated at USD 5,056 in 2024 (IMF).
| Main Indicators | 2023 (E) | 2024 (E) | 2025 (E) | 2026 (E) | 2027 (E) |
| GDP (billions USD) | 30.94 | 33.69 | 37.80 | 40.61 | 43.46 |
| GDP (Constant Prices, Annual % Change) | 4.6 | 6.0 | 9.3 | 4.9 | 5.2 |
| GDP per Capita (USD) | 1,703 | 1,805 | 1,972 | 2,061 | 2,147 |
| General Government Gross Debt (in % of GDP) | 81.2 | 84.3 | 80.5 | 81.0 | 81.5 |
| Inflation Rate (%) | 5.9 | 1.5 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 |
| Current Account (billions USD) | -5.82 | -4.27 | -3.13 | -2.39 | -2.29 |
| Current Account (in % of GDP) | -18.8 | -12.7 | -8.3 | -5.9 | -5.3 |
Source: IMF – World Economic Outlook Database , October 2021
Country Risk
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