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Economic Overview

In the context of robust economic growth spanning the past 25 years, Peru has encountered numerous setbacks in recent years. After contracting by 0.6% in 2023, the economy rebounded in 2024, with inflation staying well within the target range. Growth picked up to 3.3%, driven by a strong recovery in primary sectors, increased private consumption, and robust public investment. Growth is expected to slow in 2025 due to global policy uncertainty and pre-election tensions. Real GDP growth is forecasted at 2.9%, supported by continued private consumption growth, while public investment slows. Despite high metal prices, pre-election tensions are likely to hinder the recovery of private investment. Following this, growth is expected to stabilize around its potential rate of approximately 2.5% (data IMF).

In 2024, the external current account surplus improved further to 2.2% of GDP, supported by strong terms of trade. However, the fiscal deficit rose to 3.5% of GDP, exceeding the revised fiscal rule target of 2.8% due to lower tax collection and higher public investment. International reserves remained at a comfortable level of around 27% of GDP. The recent revision of the fiscal rule raised the fiscal deficit ceiling to 2.2% of GDP in 2025 and to 1.8% of GDP in 2026, up from 1.5% and 1.0%, respectively. The medium-term baseline scenario incorporates this new consolidation path, slightly exceeding the ceiling. Income tax regularization in 2025, bolstered by higher commodity prices in 2024, and a conservative growth projection in the 2025 budget, will contribute to this consolidation. Public debt – at 34.2% in 2024, from 33% one year earlier - is expected to remain on a stable trajectory in the coming years. Official government data pointed to a reduction in inflation to 1.9% last year amid lower energy prices. Inflation expectations for the next 12 months remain within the Central Bank’s target range of 2% ±1%.

Although the unemployment rate in Peru doubled during the early stages of the pandemic, unemployment has been decreasing since then. According to the INEI, Peru’s employed population surpassed 17.3 million in 2024, up 0.8% from the previous year, while the unemployment rate reached 5.6%, with higher unemployment among women (6.6%) than men (4.7%), as well as among young people aged 14–24 (11.5%) and those with university education (7.2%). However, the informal economy continues to employ a large part of the active population (more than 70% as per the World Bank). Moreover, the country has high levels of inequality, with a significant concentration of wealth, and a poverty rate of 32.2% (upper-middle-income poverty rate of USD 6.85/day - World Bank). There are serious regional disparities in poverty throughout the country, with the highest numbers being in the Andean and Amazonian regions.

 
Main Indicators 2024 (E)2025 (E)2026 (E)2027 (E)2028 (E)
GDP (billions USD) 289.07303.29319.10333.63348.30
GDP (Constant Prices, Annual % Change) 3.32.82.62.52.5
GDP per Capita (USD) 8,4858,8149,1829,5059,825
General Government Balance (in % of GDP) -3.6-2.9-2.9-2.5-2.2
General Government Gross Debt (in % of GDP) 32.833.734.735.535.9
Inflation Rate (%) 2.41.71.92.02.0
Unemployment Rate (% of the Labour Force) 6.46.56.56.56.5
Current Account (billions USD) 6.345.144.221.25-0.41
Current Account (in % of GDP) 2.21.71.30.4-0.1

Source: IMF – World Economic Outlook Database , Latest data available

Country Risk

See the country risk analysis provided by La Coface.

 

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Main Sectors of Industry

Peru’s varied geography is reflected in the country’s economy. The abundance of resources is found mainly in mineral deposits in the mountainous regions, while its extensive maritime territory has traditionally yielded excellent fishing resources. However, due to its complicated geographical features (such as the arid coast, the rugged Andes and the hard-to-reach jungle), Peru has a rather small agricultural area, which occupies only 20% of the territory. Still, the sector is fairly significant compared to the size of the country's arable land. Agriculture contributes to 7.2% of Peru's GDP and employs 24% of the active population. The country’s main agricultural products are cotton, sugarcane, coffee, wheat, rice, maize, quinoa, and barley. Peru is also one of the world's leading exporters of artichokes, mangoes, citrus, avocado, and grapes. After experiencing its first contraction in several years in 2023, agricultural and livestock production in Peru grew by 4.9% year-on-year in 2024, according to the Ministry of Agrarian Development and Irrigation (Midagri). This increase was driven by strong performance in the agricultural sector, which expanded by 6.8%, and the livestock sector, which rose by 1.8%.

The industry sector generates 33.9% of the GDP, employing 16.4% of the active population. Peru has a large and dynamic mining industry, mainly for copper and gold extraction. The country has been a mining economy since colonial times and is the world's second-largest producer of copper and silver, the seventh-largest producer of gold, and the second-largest producer of zinc. Additionally, the country is the third-largest producer of lead. Large mining has begun in the past years, which increased even more the importance of the mining sector. The country also has large reserves of natural gas and oil, although Peru is a net energy importer. The main manufacturing activities are textiles, consumer goods, food processing and fish products. Peru's industrial sector grew by 3.9% in 2024, partially recovering from the 6.6% decline recorded in 2023. This growth contributed 0.44 percentage points to the country's economic expansion, making it the leading sector driving national GDP in the past year, according to the Institute of Economic and Social Studies (IEES).

The tertiary sector contributes 51.3% of the GDP and employs 59.7% of the workforce. The sector’s pillars are tourism, financial services and telecommunication, all of which have boomed due to a combined effort from both the government and private sector. Figures from the Ministry of Foreign Trade and Tourism (Mincetur) show that inbound tourism in Peru grew by 29% in 2024 compared to the previous year, adding 732,000 more visitors. This figure also reflects a strong recovery, reaching 74.5% of pre-pandemic tourism levels recorded in 2019. According to the National Institute of Statistics and Informatics (INEI), in 2024, business services grew by 3.6%, public administration and defence by 3.9%, other services by 3.6%, and other product taxes and import duties by 3.5%.

 
Breakdown of Economic Activity By Sector Agriculture Industry Services
Employment By Sector (in % of Total Employment) 24.0 16.4 59.7
Value Added (in % of GDP) 7.3 34.0 51.3
Value Added (Annual % Change) 5.9 3.1 3.1

Source: World Bank - Latest available data.

 
Monetary Indicators 20202021202220232024
Peruvian Nuevo Sol (PEN) - Average Annual Exchange Rate For 1 USD 3.493.883.843.743.75

Source: World Bank - Latest available data.

 

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Foreign Trade

Peru is a member of the WTO and very open to international trade, which represents 51% of GDP. The country mainly exports copper ores and concentrates (37.5% of total exports in 2023), gold (13.5%), petroleum gas (3.5%), zinc (3.4%), grapes (2.7%), and blueberries (2.6); while its main imports are fuels (17.6%), machinery and equipment (15.5%), transport vehicles (7.4%), cars (3.6%), and poultry (3.5%). In 2023, 45,863 companies were directly involved in the foreign trade of goods and the number of exporters reached a record high, at 9,331 (Mincetur).

In 2023, the country's main export partners were China (36% of the total), the USA (14%), the EU (11%), Canada (5%), and India (4%). The Asian continent accounted for more than half of the export value (51%), followed by America with 33% and Europe with 15%. On the other hand, imports came chiefly from China (25.9%), the United States (21%), the EU (8.9%), Brazil (7.1%), Argentina (5%), Canada (2.3%), and Mexico (3.4% - data Mincetur). Nearly 90% of Peru's exports are covered by Free Trade Agreements currently in force, which enables Peruvian products to enter, subject to the rules of origin of each trade agreement, under preferential conditions to 53 countries, including Canada, Chile, China, the member countries of the European Union, Japan, Singapore, South Korea, Thailand and the United States, among others. The country is seeking to position itself as a regional hub for trade between Latin America and the APEC countries (Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation).

Peru has a structurally positive trade balance. In 2023, exports of goods contracted to USD 60.7 billion (-3.4% y-o-y), but imports decreased at a faster pace (-14.2% y-o-y) and stood at USD 52.3 billion. According to the WTO, imports of services in 2023 totalled USD 13.5 billion, while exports stood at USD 5.7 billion. In the same year, the overall trade balance was positive by 3.3% of GDP (from 0.6% one year earlier – data World Bank). According to preliminary figures from the Central Bank, in 2024, Peru achieved a trade surplus of USD 23.82 billion, surpassing the USD 17.67 billion recorded in 2023 and reaching a figure 3.5 times higher than the pre-pandemic level of USD 6.87 billion in 2019. The country's exports grew by 12.4% compared to 2023, totalling USD 75.91 billion. Meanwhile, imports reached USD 52.09 billion, marking a 4.5% increase from the previous year.

 
Foreign Trade Values 20202021202220232024
Imports of Goods (million USD) 36,14050,89160,97952,39555,165
Exports of Goods (million USD) 39,60059,64862,91164,71570,250
Imports of Services (million USD) 7,73510,73813,73513,62114,864
Exports of Services (million USD) 2,5542,7714,8725,6806,965

Source: World Trade Organisation (WTO) ; Latest available data

Foreign Trade Indicators 20202021202220232024
Foreign Trade (in % of GDP) 44.255.457.350.851.5
Trade Balance (million USD) 8,09815,11510,33117,15024,081
Trade Balance (Including Service) (million USD) 2,9037,1341,4549,19316,165
Imports of Goods and Services (Annual % Change) -15.525.43.6-1.78.0
Exports of Goods and Services (Annual % Change) -16.014.34.43.85.4
Imports of Goods and Services (in % of GDP) 21.226.228.523.622.9
Exports of Goods and Services (in % of GDP) 23.029.228.827.128.5

Source: World Bank ; Latest available data

Foreign Trade Forecasts 20252026 (e)2027 (e)2028 (e)2029 (e)
Volume of exports of goods and services (Annual % change) 1.02.11.91.92.0
Volume of imports of goods and services (Annual % change) 5.23.33.23.23.3

Source: IMF, World Economic Outlook ; Latest available data

Note: (e) Estimated Data

 
International Economic Cooperation
Andean Community of Nations
The free trade treaty with the United States came into force in February 2009.
Peru signed a Free Trade Agreement with China.
Peru signed a Free Trade Agreement with the European Free Trade Association (EFTA).
Peru is part of the Pacific Alliance.
 

Main Partner Countries

Main Customers
(% of Exports)
2024
China 33.5%
United States 12.9%
India 6.3%
Canada 5.2%
Japan 4.6%
See More Countries 37.4%
Main Suppliers
(% of Imports)
2024
China 28.7%
United States 18.2%
Brazil 6.3%
Argentina 5.2%
Mexico 3.1%
See More Countries 38.5%

Source: Comtrade, Latest Available Data

 

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Political Outline

Current Political Leaders
President: Dina Boluarte (since 7 December 2022)
Prime Minister: Gustavo Adrianzén (since 6 March 2024)
Next Election Dates
Presidential: April 12, 2026
Congress of the Republic of Peru: April 12, 2026
Main Political Parties
Peru has a multi-party system and it is difficult for a single political party to secure an absolute majority in the Congress. Thus, political groups often work with each other to form coalition alliances consisting of smaller parties. The main parliamentary forces are:

- Popular Force (FP): right-wing, fujimorism, conservatism, right-wing populism
- Free Peru (PL): left-wing to far-left, socialism, Marxism
- Popular Renewal (RP): right-wing to far-right, social conservatism, economic liberalism, anti-immigration
- Popular Action (AP): centre to centre-right, reformism, nationalism, paternalistic conservatism
- Alliance for Progress (APP): centre-right, conservative liberalism, progressivism, populism
- Go on Country – Social Integration Party (AvP): centre-right to right-wing, liberal conservatism, economic liberalism
- Together for Peru (JP): centre-left to left-wing, democratic socialism, progressivism
- Magisterial Bloc of National Concertation (BMCN): left-wing, it brings together several dissident legislators from Peru Libre
- Podemos Peru (PP): centre-right to right-wing, social conservatism, populism, protectionism
- Advance Country – Social Integration Party: right-wing to far-right
- We Are Peru (SP): centre-right, social conservatism, Christian democracy, Christian humanism.

Executive Power
The President is the chief of the state and head of the government, the commander-in-chief of the armed forces, and holds executive powers, which include the implementation of the law and running the day-to-day affairs of the country. The President is elected by popular vote for a five-year term (not eligible for an immediate re-election) and appoints the Council of Ministers (cabinet) and the Prime Minister to serve for five-year terms as well. All Presidential decree laws or draft bills sent to parliament must be approved by the Council of Ministers. The first and second vice presidents are also popularly elected, but have no constitutional functions unless the president is unable to discharge his duties.
Legislative Power
The legislature is unicameral. The parliament - called Congress - consists of 130 seats, with its members elected by popular vote to serve five-year terms. Congress ratifies treaties, authorises government loans, and approves the government budget. The President has the power to veto acts of the legislature, and, in turn, a supermajority (generally a two-thirds majority) of legislators may act to override the veto. The president has the power to block legislation with which the executive branch does not agree.
 

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