Economic Overview

For the latest updates on the key economic responses from governments to address the economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, please consult the IMF's policy tracking platform Policy Responses to COVID-19.

Pakistan has achieved steady growth since 2013 in the aftermath of a credit facility agreement with the IMF. Economic growth slowed in recent years due to measures taken by the authorities to address macroeconomic imbalances and turned negative in the aftermath of the COVID-19 pandemic. According to the IMF's estimates, growth picked up in 2022 reaching 6% of GDP despite disruptions caused by floods, a tight monetary stance, high inflation, and a less conducive global environment; while a strong inflow of remittances (around 10% of GDP, mainly from Gulf countries like Saudi Arabia and UAE) supported private consumption. The IMF expects the economy to decelerate slightly in 2023 (+2%) before picking up again the following year (+4.2%).

Concerning public finances, the full-year current account deficit is forecast at USD 4.7 billion (1.5% of GDP) in FY23 after USD 17 billion (4.6% of GDP) recorded in FY22 (Fitch Ratings) in light of restrictions on imports and foreign exchange availability, as well as fiscal tightening, higher interest rates and measures to limit energy consumption. The public debt-to-GDP ratio also increased in 2022, reaching 77.8% (from 74.9% one year earlier) but is expected to follow a downward trend over the forecast horizon (71.1% in 2023 and 76% in 2024, according to the IMF). In 2023, Fitch Ratings noted that a default of some sort appears probable following indications that the authorities are considering debt restructuring, while further deterioration in external liquidity and funding conditions could also worsen the situation. Inflation spiked to an estimated 12.1% in 2022 and is projected to further increase to 19.9% in 2023 amid continued rupee depreciation, high prices of petroleum products, and the persistent increase in the rates of agriculture commodities (Pakistan’s imports of food surged by 65% following the floods). The World Bank Report estimated financial needs for post-flood rehabilitation and reconstruction to amount to at least USD 16.3 billion.

Pakistan's unemployment rate stood at around 6.2% in 2022 and is expected to remain stable in the near future. Nevertheless, the number of people no longer actively seeking work is increasing. The level of underemployment remains very high and much of the economy is informal. While the poverty rate has fallen by 40% over the last two decades, it is still high: using the lower-middle-income poverty rate of USD 3.2 per day, in fact, the World Bank calculated that Pakistan's poverty ratio stands at around 40%. The country has a low GDP per capita (PPP), estimated at USD 6,662 in 2022 by the IMF.

Foreign Trade

Despite economic and political difficulties, Pakistan has taken steps to liberalise its trade and investment framework as part of commitments made with the WTO, IMF and the World Bank. Nevertheless, the share of foreign trade in Pakistan's GDP continues to be low, at 27% (World Bank, latest data available). Textile products account by far for the largest share of exports (around 60%, mostly comprising linen, clothing and cotton, making the country the 9th textile exporter in the world), followed by rice (4.877 million tons, valued at USD 2.51 billion in FY2022). In regards to imports, the largest items are petroleum products, followed by palm oil, telephones and coal (Comtrade).

The United States is the top destination for Pakistani exports (21.1%, mainly textile), followed by China (10.5%), the United Kingdom (7.3%), and Germany (5.4%). China is by far the largest supplier of goods and services in Pakistan (28.3%), ahead of the United Arab Emirates (10.1%), Indonesia (5.8%), the United States (5.3%), and Saudi Arabia (5.2%). The free trade agreement (FTA) with China impacted Pakistani manufacturing exports, which have declined in recent years, and local businesses worry the completion of the China–Pakistan Economic Corridor would further increase the share of Chinese products in the domestic market. Click here for an overview of Pakistan’s free trade agreements.
 
Pakistan's trade structure has been structurally in deficit: in 2021, imports of goods reached the record level of USD 72.5 billion (+58.3% year-on-year), while exports grew at a slower pace (+28.9%), totalling USD 28.3 billion. Concerning the trade of services, imports reached USD 9.8 billion, whereas exports amounted to USD 6.5 billion. For the same year, the World Bank estimated the country’s trade deficit at 8.9% of GDP (from 8.1% one year earlier). The latest figures from the Bureau of Statistics show that in the fiscal year 2022 (July ’21-June ’22), exports of goods reached USD 31.7 billion (+25.5% y-o-y), against USD 80 billion in imports (+42% y-o-y).

COVID-19 Country Response

Travel restrictions

Regularly updated travel information for all countries with regards to Covid-19 related entry regulations, flight bans, test and vaccines requirements is available on TravelDoc Infopage.
To find information about the current travel regulations, including health requirements, it is also advised to consult Travel Regulations Map provided and updated on a daily basis by IATA.

Import & export restrictions

A general overview of trade restrictions which were adopted by different countries during the COVID-19 pandemic is available on the International Trade Centre's COVID-19 Temporary Trade Measures webpage.

Economic recovery plan

For the general overview of the key economic policy responses to the COVID-19 pandemic (fiscal, monetary and macroeconomic) undertaken by the government of Pakistan, please consult the country's dedicated section in the IMF’s Policy Tracker platform.

Support plan for businesses

For an evaluation of impact of the Covid pandemic on SMEs and an inventory of country responses to foster SME resilience, refer to the OECD's SME Covid-19 Policy Responses document.
You can also consult the World Bank's Map of SME-Support Measures in Response to COVID-19.