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Economic and political overview

Economic Overview

Preliminary national account figures indicate a 0.6% annual growth in mainland Norway's GDP from 2023 to 2024, adjusted for constant prices. The mainland economy saw nearly zero growth in 2023, but activity has picked up slightly in 2024. However, a carry-over effect from 2022 results in annual growth similar to the previous two years. Demand from central and local governments, strong petroleum investment, and growth in mainland exports have supported the mainland economy. Conversely, a decline in investment in residential and commercial buildings, alongside modest growth in private consumption, has exerted a counteracting effect. The IMF forecasts growth of 1.8% this year and 1.7% in 2026, driven by a consumer-led recovery in consumption, strong performance in the oil and gas sector, and fiscal stimulus.

Norway’s public finances are sound. The government's gross debt did not expand substantially in the aftermath of the Covid-19 crisis unlike in the rest of Europe, despite public monetary support and a comprehensive loan programme to the banks. The surge in energy prices during 2022-2023 further bolstered the sovereign’s fiscal and external buffers. Norway’s internationally comparable budget surplus, including petroleum revenue, stood at 16.3% of GDP in 2023, with expectations to remain around 14% in 2024 and 2025. Norges Bank estimated the structural non-oil budget deficit to be 10.7% of mainland trend GDP in 2024, driven by fiscal-easing measures equivalent to 1 percentage point of mainland GDP. This figure excludes Government Pension Fund Global (GPFG) transfers (whose total assets were estimated at NOK 19,742 billion as of 31 December 2024). Norway’s fiscal rule targets a 3% annual transfer from the GPFG throughout the economic cycle, reflecting the fund's expected long-term real return.  In 2024, the debt-to-GDP ratio was estimated at 42.7%, down from 44% one year earlier. The ratio is expected to remain stable over the forecast horizon (IMF). The Norwegian economy has experienced unusually high inflation in recent years, but it slowed significantly in 2024. Inflation is estimated to have increased by 3.5% from 2023 to 2024, a decrease from 4.2% the previous year (official governmental figures).

Official estimates suggest that accrued annual wage growth reached 5.7% in 2024. This increase slightly outpaced the rise in the consumer price index, resulting in real wage growth for the first time since 2021. The unemployment rate was estimated at 4.3% in 2024, up from 3.6% one year earlier, and is expected to stabilize around 3.8% in the medium term. Overall, Norway is a rich country, with one of the highest GDP per capita in the world (USD 103,446 PPP in 2024 by the IMF). The nation also scores at the top of the United Nations Human Development Index ranking.

 
Main Indicators 2023 (E)2024 (E)2025 (E)2026 (E)2027 (E)
GDP (billions USD) 485.31503.75506.47509.34522.44
GDP (Constant Prices, Annual % Change) 0.51.51.81.71.6
GDP per Capita (USD) 87,70390,43490,32090,23391,941
General Government Balance (in % of GDP) -9.6-10.4-11.1-11.6-11.9
General Government Gross Debt (in % of GDP) 44.042.742.742.542.0
Inflation Rate (%) 5.53.32.42.02.0
Unemployment Rate (% of the Labour Force) 3.64.33.83.83.8
Current Account (billions USD) 86.8373.1363.5053.8345.82
Current Account (in % of GDP) 17.914.512.510.68.8

Source: IMF – World Economic Outlook Database , October 2021

Country Risk

See the country risk analysis provided by La Coface.

 

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Main Sectors of Industry

Agriculture accounts for 2.1% of Norway’s GDP and employs 1% of the workforce (World Bank, latest data available). Fishing is an important activity as Norway is the world's second-biggest seafood exporter after China. The country has 36,790 agricultural holdings (Statistics Norway) and is more than self-sufficient in animal products, livestock being one of the major agricultural subsectors. However, Norway remains dependent on imports for cereal crops (soybeans, wheat, rapeseed and bananas) and agricultural subsidies are very significant. About 33.4% of Norway’s total land area is covered by forests (12.6 million ha). According to the Norwegian Seafood Council, Norway exported USD 15.5 billion worth of seafood in 2024, the highest level ever recorded, marking an increase of USD 327 million from the previous year. The total export volume reached 2.8 million metric tons.

Industry employs 19% of the workforce and represents 39% of GDP. Norway’s economy depends on its natural resources and energy sources (oil, gas, hydraulic energy, forests and minerals). Oil rents, which have once dominated the economy, now provide around 5% of GDP, well below its peak level in 2000. Nevertheless, the oil and gas sector is Norway's largest measured in terms of value-added, government revenues, investments and export value. The government's total net cash flow from the petroleum industry was estimated to be NOK 701 billion in 2024 (Norskpetroleum). Overall, the “extraction and related services” sector accounts for 83.2% of total industrial output in 2024 (Statistics Norway). Manufacturing accounts for only 6% of GDP. Shipbuilding, metals, wood pulp and paper, the chemical industry, machinery and electrical equipment make up Norway’s main manufacturing industries. Norway also has one of the largest and most modern fleets in the world.

The Norwegian service sector is highly developed; it employs over 79% of the population and accounts for half of the GDP. The tourism sector is an important source of income: according to Statistics Norway, 2024 was a record year for Norwegian accommodation establishments, with an all-time high of 38.6 million guest nights, up 4.2% from 2023. As per the Norwegian banking sector, it is comprised of 124 banks of which 106 are local banks and 18 are branches of foreign banks. The market share of the subsidiaries and branches of foreign banks were 23% and 36% in the retail and domestic corporate markets, respectively (European Banking Federation, latest data available).

 
Breakdown of Economic Activity By Sector Agriculture Industry Services
Employment By Sector (in % of Total Employment) 2.5 18.9 78.5
Value Added (in % of GDP) 2.1 39.0 50.0
Value Added (Annual % Change) -6.1 0.2 1.1

Source: World Bank - Latest available data.

 
Monetary Indicators 20162017201820192020
Norwegian Krone (NOK) - Average Annual Exchange Rate For 1 USD 8.408.278.138.809.42

Source: World Bank - Latest available data.

 

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Foreign Trade

Norway has a very open economy, with trade representing 80% of GDP (World Bank, latest data available). Traditionally, the country exports energy-intensive products and imports high-technology items. Norway is among the top 20 exporters of oil and natural gas and the second biggest seafood exporter in the world. In 2023, exports were led by petroleum gas (34.8%), petroleum oils (32%), fresh or chilled fish (5.3%), unwrought aluminium (2.1%), and fish fillets (1.8%); whereas imports were more diversified and comprised chiefly motor cars (6.4%), petroleum oils (5.4%), nickel mattes (2.8%), telephone sets (2.2%), and automatic data-processing machines (2.0% - Comtrade).

The country's main trade partners are generally member states of the European Union. In terms of countries, the United Kingdom and Germany were the major export partners in 2023 (19.0% of the total), followed by the Netherlands (8.3%), Sweden (7.7%), and Poland (6.1%). On the other hand, imports came from Germany (11.4%), China (11.1%), Sweden (10.8%), the United States (7.6%), and the Netherlands (4.8% - data Comtrade). Norway is a member of the EEA, which allows it to be part of the EU’s single market. This ensures the free movement of goods, services, people, and capital between Norway and the EU. Moreover, it has numerous FTAs as part of its membership in EFTA.

After experiencing an outstanding year in 2022 as the dynamics of energy prices significantly influenced the country's exports, Norway’s foreign trade normalized in 2023, when total goods exports plummeted to USD 173.9 billion and imports decreased at a slower pace, to USD 95.3 billion (-30.3% and -9.7% y-o-y, respectively). Meanwhile, services exports stood at USD 52 billion, against USD 61.3 billion in imports (stable and +7.2%, respectively – WTO). For the year as a whole, the World Bank estimated a trade surplus equal to 14.7% of GDP (from the record-breaking 28.3% one year earlier). According to preliminary governmental figures, Norway's trade balance for 2024 ended with a surplus of NOK 722 billion, marking a decrease of approximately NOK 67 billion compared to 2023. The total value of exports reached NOK 2,472 billion, while imports amounted to NOK 1,750 billion.

 
Foreign Trade Values 20192020202120222023
Imports of Goods (million USD) 85,31980,44797,764105,54595,292
Exports of Goods (million USD) 102,79984,459160,106249,805173,906
Imports of Services (million USD) 52,62539,52742,05357,23061,371
Exports of Services (million USD) 42,90534,11341,27452,21152,012

Source: World Trade Organisation (WTO) ; Latest available data

Foreign Trade Indicators 20192020202120222023
Foreign Trade (in % of GDP) 70.965.471.282.679.7
Trade Balance (million USD) 15,7892,06563,675171,07978,423
Trade Balance (Including Service) (million USD) 6,069-3,34862,897166,06169,255
Imports of Goods and Services (Annual % Change) 5.3-9.91.812.50.7
Exports of Goods and Services (Annual % Change) 2.1-2.36.14.51.4
Imports of Goods and Services (in % of GDP) 34.333.128.227.132.5
Exports of Goods and Services (in % of GDP) 36.632.243.055.547.2

Source: World Bank ; Latest available data

Foreign Trade Forecasts 20242025 (e)2026 (e)2027 (e)2028 (e)
Volume of exports of goods and services (Annual % change) 3.32.71.71.71.7
Volume of imports of goods and services (Annual % change) 1.32.12.32.32.3

Source: IMF, World Economic Outlook ; Latest available data

Note: (e) Estimated Data

 
International Economic Cooperation
Norway is a member of the following international economic organisations:  IMF, European Union, ICC, Euro-Atlantic Partnership Council (EAPC), WTO, OECD, among others. For the full list of economic and other international organisations in which participates Norway click here. International organisation membership of Norway is also outlined here.
Free Trade Agreements
The up-to-date list of Free Trade Agreements signed by Norway can be consulted here.
 

Main Partner Countries

Main Customers
(% of Exports)		 2023
United Kingdom 19.0%
Germany 19.0%
Netherlands 8.3%
Sweden 7.7%
Poland 6.1%
See More Countries 39.8%
Main Suppliers
(% of Imports)		 2023
Germany 11.4%
China 11.1%
Sweden 10.8%
United States 7.6%
Netherlands 4.8%
See More Countries 54.3%

Source: Comtrade, Latest Available Data

 

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Political Outline

Current Political Leaders
King: Harald V (since 17 January 1991) - hereditary
Prime Minister: Jonas Gahr STORE (since 14 October 2021) – Labour Party
Next Election Dates
Parliamentary: 30 September 2025
Current Political Context
The Labour Party led by Jonas Gahr Støre managed to form a minority coalition government with the Centre Party following the 2021 parliamentary election. The third potential government partner – the Socialist Left Party – decided not to join the coalition over disagreements related to environmental policy (as oil and gas exploration should continue at both old and new oil fields); however, it supports Støre’s government on a case-by-case basis. Government stability is further guaranteed by the Norwegian constitution, which does not allow the dissolution of the parliament and early elections.
Norway's next parliamentary election is scheduled for September 2025. As of early 2025, Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Støre's Labour Party is trailing behind both the Conservative Party and the populist right-wing Progress Party in opinion polls, with voters expressing concerns over the rising cost of living in recent years. On the 30th anniversary of Norway's last referendum on European Union membership, public opinion shifted, with growing support for EU membership increasing from around 20% over the past decade to 34.9%. Meanwhile, opposition to EU membership decreased from over 70% in 2016 to 46.7%. To strengthen defence and security cooperation, Norway and the EU signed a partnership agreement on May 28, 2024. This non-binding pact seeks to strengthen partnerships in sectors like crisis management, the defence sector, space cooperation, key infrastructure, economic security, and hybrid threats.
Main Political Parties
Coalition governments comprising several parties are typical in Norway. Currently, nine parties are represented in the parliament. The Labour Party and the Conservative Party are historically the most represented.

- Norwegian Labour Party (DNA): centre-left
- Conservative Party (Høyre): centre-right
- Centre Party (SP): centrist
- Progress Party (FrP): right-wing party
- Socialist Left Party (SV): left-wing
- Red Party (Rødt): left to far-left, Marxist
- Liberal Party (Venstre): centre-right, conservative-liberal
- Green Party: centre-left green political party
- Christian Democratic Party (KrF): centre.
Executive Power
In Norway, the Constitution grants executive powers to the King, but these are largely ceremonial and exercised by the Cabinet. After elections, the King appoints the leader of the majority party or coalition as Prime Minister with the approval of Parliament. The King’s role is symbolic, with the Prime Minister holding actual executive authority. The Prime Minister in Norway leads the Cabinet, holds executive authority, and is responsible for directing government policies and operations.
Legislative Power
The Storting is the legislative body of Norway. The parliament is unicameral and consists of 169 representatives. Members are elected for four-year terms according to a system of proportional representation. The Storting cannot be dissolved before serving its full four-year term.
 

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