Economic Overview
Over the past few years, Mali has faced significant upheavals, including two coups d'état, the COVID-19 pandemic, acute security threats, and a cost-of-living crisis stemming from Russia's invasion of Ukraine. A stringent embargo imposed by regional partners in the first half of 2022 limited international economic transactions for both the government and private sector. Despite the embargo, GDP growth was estimated at 3.7% in 2022, with a further acceleration to 4.5% in 2023, supported by a strong recovery in the agricultural sector and high gold export revenues. According to the IMF, the economy is expected to experience sustained growth over the forecast horizon, at 4.8% this year and 5.3% in 2025.
In 2022, the government's fiscal deficit, standing at just under 5% of GDP, highlights a swift rise in security expenditures, public wages, and interest payments. These factors have led to a crowding-out effect on growth-friendly spending, particularly on social safety nets and capital investments. Mali is experiencing tightening financing conditions, primarily due to the absence of external budget support, which ceased following the two coups d'état in 2020 and 2021. It is unlikely to resume until after elections are held in 2024. Additionally, higher global interest rates further exacerbate the situation. The public deficit decreased slightly in 2023 due to the implementation of the new mining code, which was promulgated in August 2023. This boosted revenues by increasing the maximum participation of the State and local investors in mining projects from 20% to 35%, while eliminating tax exemptions previously granted to companies during exploitation. However, fiscal consolidation, relying on administrative reforms and rationalization of spending, remained limited as the junta had to increase military and security spending following the withdrawal of Western forces. Additionally, spending continued to be constrained by public workers' salaries, which accounted for 55% of tax revenues, and by the implementation of the National Strategy for the Stabilization of Central Regions and its three-year action plan (2022-2024), with a total budget of XOF 956 billion. The public debt-to-GDP ratio was stable at around 51.8% of GDP in 2023 and should continue its upward trajectory (IMF). The inflation rate was estimated at 5% in 2023 and is seen decelerating to 2.8% this year and 2% in 2025 also due to a stronger agricultural output (IMF).
Mali is classified as a heavily indebted poor country (HIPC) and, as such, it benefited from debt cancellation under the IMF's HIPC Initiative. With an average income per capita of USD 2.20 per day, it ranks among the 20 poorest countries globally. It also faces one of the highest population growth rates, alongside elevated levels of illiteracy and unemployment, particularly among the youth. Notably, the informal sector significantly contributes to the national economy. According to the World Bank's figures, 19.1% of Malians were living in extreme poverty in 2022, 3.2% more than one year earlier due to the erosion of the purchasing power of the most vulnerable, owing to soaring consumer prices and weak economic growth. Poverty is concentrated in rural areas (90% of all poor) and in the south of the country. According to ILO estimates, almost three-quarters of the economically active population work in the informal economy; whereas the unemployment rate in 2023 stood at around 3.3% of the total workforce (World Bank, latest data available). The same source estimated the country’s GDP per capita (PPP) at USD 2,519 in 2022.
| Main Indicators | 2022 | 2023 (E) | 2024 (E) | 2025 (E) | 2026 (E) |
| GDP (billions USD) | 18.72 | 20.68 | 21.66 | 22.98 | 24.57 |
| GDP (Constant Prices, Annual % Change) | 3.5 | 4.5 | 4.0 | 4.5 | 4.9 |
| GDP per Capita (USD) | 828 | 886 | 899 | 924 | 957 |
| General Government Gross Debt (in % of GDP) | 52.9 | 53.0 | 55.1 | 55.7 | 55.5 |
| Inflation Rate (%) | 9.7 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 |
| Current Account (billions USD) | -1.51 | -1.86 | -1.11 | -1.00 | -0.83 |
| Current Account (in % of GDP) | -8.0 | -9.0 | -5.1 | -4.4 | -3.4 |
Source: IMF – World Economic Outlook Database , October 2021
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