Economic Overview
Kazakhstan's economic growth is largely based on gas and oil revenues, accounting for around 35% of GDP and 75% of exports. The estimated GDP growth for 2023 stood at 4.6%, fueled by growth in both the oil and non-oil sectors, with the impact of the conflict in Ukraine remaining contained. Strong credit growth has also supported activity. According to the IMF, anticipated growth in 2024 is projected to moderate within an uncertain economic climate, expected to slow to 3.1% primarily due to delays in the Tengiz oil field expansion. Over the medium term, non-oil GDP growth is set to stabilize at around 3.5%. Downside risks encompass potential oil price declines, disruptions in oil exports, and sluggish growth among trading partners. Additionally, spillovers from the conflict in Ukraine and geopolitical fragmentation, including secondary sanctions, pose threats to activity and investor confidence.
In 2023, the fiscal stance has loosened, witnessing notable rises in investment spending, particularly directed towards transport and energy infrastructure, alongside increased social spending. The consolidated budget deficit was estimated at 1% of GDP, with expected deficits of 1.3% this year and 1.1% in 2025 (IMF). As of 2023, the general government debt accounted for 23.4% of GDP, representing a credit strength. The IMF foresees the ratio to remain stable over the forecast horizon. The government's dedication to fiscal consolidation is encouraging and should be reinforced by adopting more conservative economic forecasts and implementing precise reform strategies. Achieving a reduction in the non-oil deficit to 5% of GDP by 2030 would bolster disinflation efforts and safeguard substantial fiscal reserves (IMF). Inflation, which reached its peak at 21% in February, decreased over the course of the year, averaging 15% by the conclusion of 2023. It is forecasted to gradually ease, reaching 6.7% by 2025.
Unemployment rate remained stable at 4.8% in 2023. The growth of real wages has stabilized after experiencing sharp increases over the past two years. According to IMF estimates, unemployment should remain stable over the projected period. The World Bank's Kazakhstan Economic Update estimates that the country's poverty rate has increased to 12-14% in 2022 from a baseline of 6% in 2016. The government has implemented a substantial amount of direct support to businesses through tax deferrals and subsidized loans, and financial support to poor households and affected individuals.
| Main Indicators | 2022 | 2023 (E) | 2024 (E) | 2025 (E) | 2026 (E) |
| GDP (billions USD) | 225.53 | 259.29 | 290.99 | 309.38 | 322.28 |
| GDP (Constant Prices, Annual % Change) | 3.3 | 4.6 | 4.2 | 4.6 | 1.8 |
| GDP per Capita (USD) | 11,409 | 12,968 | 14,396 | 15,146 | 15,614 |
| General Government Balance (in % of GDP) | 0.1 | -1.0 | -1.3 | -1.1 | -1.3 |
| General Government Gross Debt (in % of GDP) | 23.5 | 23.4 | 23.6 | 25.7 | 28.1 |
| Inflation Rate (%) | n/a | 15.0 | 9.0 | 6.7 | 5.8 |
| Unemployment Rate (% of the Labour Force) | 4.9 | 4.8 | 4.8 | 4.8 | 4.8 |
| Current Account (billions USD) | 7.82 | -3.93 | -1.99 | -1.79 | -7.50 |
| Current Account (in % of GDP) | 3.5 | -1.5 | -0.7 | -0.6 | -2.3 |
Source: IMF – World Economic Outlook Database , October 2021
Country Risk
See the country risk analysis provided by La Coface.
