Economic Overview

For the latest updates on the key economic responses from governments to address the economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, please consult the IMF's policy tracking platform Policy Responses to COVID-19.

Kazakhstan's economic growth is largely based on gas and oil revenues (around 35% of GDP and 75% of exports). In 2019, Kazakh GDP grew by 4.5%, as domestic demand, business spending and construction boom supported economic activity. In 2020, Kazakhstan's economy experienced a setback due to the COVID-19 outbreak, reporting a negative growth balance of 2.6%, but came back in 2021 with a rate of + 3.3%. According to the latest IMF forecast, growth is expected to increase in 2022 and 2023, at 3.9% and 5.8% of GDP respectively.

The COVID-19 pandemic fallout has affected the economy more than the 2008 and 2015 crises. The pandemic halted global activity in the second quarter of 2020, and depressed global demand and oil prices. In April 2020, the average oil price fell to $21 per barrel, the lowest in two decades. Despite the government's diversification efforts, Kazakhstan is still dependent on oil prices and the economy relies heavily on hydrocarbon exports. This has made the economy even more vulnerable. Public debt reached 25.2% of GDP in 2021, compared to 26.3% reported in 2020, and is expected to increase to 26.5% in 2022 and 27.6% in 2023. The country's budget deficit reached -6.6% of GDP in 2020 but was reduced to -2.7% in 2021. The IMF forecasts another increasing budget deficit of -1.3% for 2022 and -1% in 2023. Inflation rose to 6.8% in 2020 and 7.5% in 2021, but is expected to reach 6.5% in 2022 and 5% in 2023, according to the IMF's latest World Economic Outlook (October 2021).
Since 2015, Kazakhstan has been a member of the Eurasian Economic Union (with Russia, Belarus, Armenia and Kyrgyzstan), which could eventually be used to facilitate economic diversification. Kazakhstan is turning more to China for its development needs, while China needs the country to develop its "Silk Road" project: a railway terminal was opened on the Chinese side of the border in 2015. Anti-Chinese sentiment grew in the country in 2019 with sporadic mass protests against a backdrop of a perceived Chinese takeover of domestic economy. This sentiment remain very much present in 2022. Kazakhstan halted oil exports to China at the start of 2020 after discovering contaminated material in crude flows to China. The new Kazakh president Kassym-Jomart Tokayev now seeks to strengthen economic ties with China.

Emerging challenges include weakening global demand for fossil fuels, greater regional competition to attract investment, increased risks of instability in the financial sector and more need for accountable and transparent governance.

Unemployment rate decreased to 4.8% in 2021, down from 4.9% in 2019, despite the negative economic effects of the Covid-19 pandemic. According to IMF estimates, unemployment should remain stable at 4.7% in 2022 and 2023. The World Bank's Kazakhstan Economic Update estimates that the country's poverty rate has increased to 12-14% in 2020 from a baseline of 6% in 2016. The government has implemented a substantial amount of direct support to businesses through tax deferrals and subsidised loans, and financial support to poor households and affected individuals. Volatile oil prices and uncertainty over the scale of global demand for hydrocarbons are other risks that could weaken export and pressure exchange rate. The recent increase in housing prices also makes home ownership less affordable and a steady rise in mortgage lending along with lifting of forbearance measures could expose the banking sector to higher NPLs in the event of future shocks. Moreover, with the heavily reliant on hydrocarbons, the country faces challenges arising from the emissions reduction and low-carbon transition (World Bank, 2022).

Foreign Trade

Kazakhstan is open to international trade. According to the World Bank, the share of international trade in 2020 amounted to 56.2% of GDP. Kazakhstan has an export-oriented economy that is highly dependent on shipments of oil and related products (73 percent of total exports). In addition to oil, its main export commodities include natural gas, ferrous metals, copper, aluminum, zinc and uranium. Kazakhstan's main export products are raw materials, notably oil, petroleum products, coal, iron ore, machinery. Cereals, wool and meat are other major exports. The country imports mainly machinery, nuclear reactors, boilers, Electrical, electronic equipment, and radiotelephone transmitting devices.

Kazakhstan's main international customers are China (19% of all exports), Italy and Russia, while the main suppliers are Russia (35%), China, South Korea and Germany. Russia and Kazakhstan have undertaken joint projects in many areas, including energy. The government aims to improve the country's integration abroad to increase investment in the country. The country has been a WTO member since 2015 and has trade agreements with many countries in its region. It is also a member of the Eurasian Economic Union (Russia, Belarus, Armenia, Kyrgyzstan and Kazakhstan), and the Common Economic Zone (Belarus and Russia). The Enhanced Partnership and Cooperation Agreement (EPCA) was signed in 2015 between the country and the European Union, and a revised version entered into force in March 2020.

As oil and gas are among Kazakhstan's main exports, the country's trade balance depends is affected by global commodity prices. Kazakhstan’s total foreign trade turnover amounted to 91.3 billion USD over the period from January through November 2021, an increase of 15.4% compared to 79.1 billion USD during the same period last year. This means that the EU accounts for 31% of all Kazakh foreign trade. The increase is trade has largely been due to the increased amount of freight moving across Eurasia from China to Europe, with the trans-Kazakh route one of the heaviest used. Kazakh imports from China usually arrive by the same rail route and reached about US$8 billion in value in 2021. With these containers being offloaded at Kazakhstan, space is then available for Kazakh goods to continue west to Europe.Kazakhstan’s Statistics Committee has stated that Kazakhstan’s trade with the countries of the European Union reached 28.4 billion USD during the period January – November 2021, which is a 25.6% increase over the 22.6 billion USD achieved during the same period in 2020 (Silk road briefing, 2022).  In 2020, total U.S.–Kazakhstan goods trade was 2.3 billion USD, with the United States holding a negative trade balance of 461 million USD.

COVID-19 Country Response

COVID-19 epidemic evolution

To find out about the latest status of the COVID19 pandemic evolution and the most up-to-date statistics on the COVID19 disease in Kazakhstan, please visit the Kazakh government platform with the official data. Official information on the progress of the epidemic in Kazakhstan is consolidated by the Ministry of Healthcare. The ministry provides a daily epidemiological update (in Russian), which includes key national figures.

For the international outlook you can consult the latest situation reports published by the World Health Organisation as well as the global daily statistics on the coronavirus pandemic evolution including data on confirmed cases and deaths by country.

Sanitary measures

To find out about the latest public health situation in Kazakhstan and the current sanitary measures in vigour, please consult the Kazakh government platform on COVID-19 including the up-to-date information on the containment measures put in place and public health recommendations.

Travel restrictions

The COVID-19 situation, including the spread of new variants, evolves rapidly and differs from country to country. All travelers need to pay close attention to the conditions at their destination before traveling. Regularly updated information for all countries with regards to Covid-19 related travel restrictions in place including entry regulations, flight bans, test requirements and quarantine is available on TravelDoc Infopage.
It is also highly recommended to consult COVID-19 Travel Regulations Map provided and updated on the daily basis by IATA.
The US government website of Centers of Disease Control and Prevention provides COVID-19 Travel Recommendations by Destination.
The UK Foreign travel advice also provides travelling abroad advice for all countries, including the latest information on coronavirus, safety and security, entry requirements and travel warnings.

Import & export restrictions

For the information on all the measures applicable to movement of goods during the period of sanitary emergency due to the COVID-19 outbreak (including eventual restrictions on imports and exports, if applicable), please consult the portal of the Kazakh Ministry of Trade.

For a general overview of trade restrictions due to COVID-19 pandemic, please consult the section dedicated to Kazakhstan on the International Trade Centre's COVID-19 Temporary Trade Measures webpage.

Economic recovery plan

For the information on the economic recovery scheme put in place by the Kazakh government to address the impact of the COVID19 pandemic on the Kazakh economy, please visit the websites of the Kazakh Ministry of the Economy and the Ministry of Finance. The information on the Kazakh economic emergency plan is available here.

For the general overview of the key economic policy responses to the COVID-19 outbreak (fiscal, monetary and  macroeconomic) taken by the Kazakh government to limit the socio-economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic,  please consult the section dedicated to Kazakhstan in the IMF’s Policy Tracker platform.

Support plan for businesses

For the information on the local business support scheme established by the Kazakh government to help small and  medium-sized companies to deal with the economic impacts of the COVID19 epidemic on their activity, please consult  the portal of the Kazakh Ministry of National Economy and the Ministry of Finance.

For a general overview of international SME support policy responses to the COVID-19 outbreak refer to the World Bank's Map of SME-Support Measures in Response to COVID-19.

Support plan for exporters

To find out about the support plan for exporters put in place by the Kazakh government, please consult the latest publications available on the Kazakh Ministry of Trade website.