Economic Overview

For the latest updates on the key economic responses from governments to address the economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, please consult the IMF's policy tracking platform Policy Responses to COVID-19.

Kazakhstan's economic growth is largely based on gas and oil revenues (around 35% of GDP and 75% of exports). In 2021, Kazakh GDP grew by 4.1%, as domestic demand, business spending and construction boom supported economic activity, but came down to 2.5% in 2022. According to the latest IMF forecast, growth is expected to increase in 2023 and 2024, at 4.4% and 4.5% of GDP respectively.

The COVID-19 pandemic fallout has affected the economy more than the 2008 and 2015 crises. The pandemic halted global activity in the second quarter of 2020, and depressed global demand and oil prices. Despite the government's diversification efforts, Kazakhstan is still dependent on oil prices and the economy relies heavily on hydrocarbon exports. This has made the economy even more vulnerable. Public debt reached 25.1% of GDP in 2021 and 23.3% in 2022, and is expected to increase to 24.4% in 2023 and 25.7% in 2024. The country's budget deficit reached -5% of GDP in 2021 but was reduced to -2% in 2022. The IMF forecasts another budget deficit of -1.9% for 2023 and -1% in 2024. Inflation rose to 8% in 2021 and more than 14% in 2022, but is expected to reach 11.3% in 2023 and 7.5% in 2024, according to the IMF's latest World Economic Outlook (January 2023).

Since 2015, Kazakhstan has been a member of the Eurasian Economic Union (with Russia, Belarus, Armenia and Kyrgyzstan), which could eventually be used to facilitate economic diversification. Kazakhstan is turning more to China for its development needs, while China needs the country to develop its "Silk Road" project: a railway terminal was opened on the Chinese side of the border in 2015. Anti-Chinese sentiment grew in the country in 2019 with sporadic mass protests against a backdrop of a perceived Chinese takeover of domestic economy. This sentiment remain very much present in 2022. Kazakhstan halted oil exports to China at the start of 2020 after discovering contaminated material in crude flows to China. The new Kazakh president Kassym-Jomart Tokayev now seeks to strengthen economic ties with China.

Emerging challenges include weakening global demand for fossil fuels, greater regional competition to attract investment, increased risks of instability in the financial sector and more need for accountable and transparent governance.

Unemployment rate remained stable at 4.9% in 2022, despite the negative economic effects of the Covid-19 pandemic. According to IMF estimates, unemployment should remain at 4.8% in 2023 and 2024. The World Bank's Kazakhstan Economic Update estimates that the country's poverty rate has increased to 12-14% in 2022 from a baseline of 6% in 2016. The government has implemented a substantial amount of direct support to businesses through tax deferrals and subsidised loans, and financial support to poor households and affected individuals. Volatile oil prices and uncertainty over the scale of global demand for hydrocarbons are other risks that could weaken export and pressure exchange rate. The recent increase in housing prices also makes home ownership less affordable and a steady rise in mortgage lending along with lifting of forbearance measures could expose the banking sector to higher NPLs in the event of future shocks. Moreover, with the heavily reliant on hydrocarbons, the country faces challenges arising from the emissions reduction and low-carbon transition (World Bank, 2022).

Foreign Trade

Kazakhstan is open to international trade. According to the World Bank, the share of international trade in 2021 amounted to 58% of GDP (World Bank, 2023). Kazakhstan has an export-oriented economy that is highly dependent on shipments of oil and related products (57.2% of total exports). The country has been recording trade surpluses since 1998 mainly due to rise in shipments of oil and other commodities.In addition to oil, its main export commodities include natural gas, ferrous metals, copper, aluminum, zinc, uranium. Kazakhstan's main export products are raw materials, notably oil, petroleum products, coal, iron ore, machinery. Cereals, wool and meat are other major exports. The country imports mainly machinery, nuclear reactors, boilers, Electrical, electronic equipment, and radiotelephone transmitting devices.

Kazakhstan's main international customers are China (19.2% of all exports), Italy and Russia, while the main suppliers are Russia (34.9%), China, South Korea and Germany. Russia and Kazakhstan have undertaken joint projects in many areas, including energy. The government aims to improve the country's integration abroad to increase investment in the country. The country has been a WTO member since 2015 and has trade agreements with many countries in its region. It is also a member of the Eurasian Economic Union (Russia, Belarus, Armenia, Kyrgyzstan and Kazakhstan), and the Common Economic Zone (Belarus and Russia). The Enhanced Partnership and Cooperation Agreement (EPCA) was signed in 2015 between the country and the European Union, and a revised version entered into force in March 2020.

As oil and gas are among Kazakhstan's main exports, the country's trade balance is affected by global commodity prices. Kazakhstan’s total foreign trade turnover amounted to 91.3 billion USD over the period from January through November 2021, an increase of 15.4% compared to 79.1 billion USD during the same period last year. This means that the EU accounts for 31% of all Kazakh foreign trade. The increase is trade has largely been due to the increased amount of freight moving across Eurasia from China to Europe, with the trans-Kazakh route one of the heaviest used. Kazakh imports from China usually arrive by the same rail route and reached about US$8 billion in value in 2021. With these containers being offloaded at Kazakhstan, space is then available for Kazakh goods to continue west to Europe. Kazakhstan’s Statistics Committee has stated that Kazakhstan’s trade with the countries of the European Union reached 28.4 billion USD during the period January – November 2021, which is a 25.6% increase over the 22.6 billion USD achieved during the same period in 2020 (Silk road briefing, 2022). In 2021, total U.S.–Kazakhstan goods trade was 2.65 billion USD, with the United States holding a negative trade balance of 1.56 billion USD.

Kazakhstan recorded a trade surplus of 1309.10 USD Million in December of 2022 (Agency of Statistics of the Republic of Kazakhstan, 2023).

COVID-19 Country Response

Travel restrictions

Regularly updated travel information for all countries with regards to Covid-19 related entry regulations, flight bans, test and vaccines requirements is available on TravelDoc Infopage.
To find information about the current travel regulations, including health requirements, it is also advised to consult Travel Regulations Map provided and updated on a daily basis by IATA.

Import & export restrictions

A general overview of trade restrictions which were adopted by different countries during the COVID-19 pandemic is available on the International Trade Centre's COVID-19 Temporary Trade Measures webpage.

Economic recovery plan

ry and macroeconomic) undertaken by the government of Kazakhstan, please consult the country's dedicated section in the IMF’s Policy Tracker platform.

Support plan for businesses

For an evaluation of impact of the Covid pandemic on SMEs and an inventory of country responses to foster SME resilience, refer to the OECD's SME Covid-19 Policy Responses document.
You can also consult the World Bank's Map of SME-Support Measures in Response to COVID-19.