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Economic Overview

Kazakhstan's economic growth is largely based on gas and oil revenues, accounting for around 35% of GDP and 75% of exports. After reaching 5.1% in 2023, Kazakhstan’s economic growth remained strong in 2024, though it slowed to 3.9% from 5.1% in 2023, largely due to flat oil production partly compensated by a broad-based non-oil growth, according to the IMF. Growth is projected to reach 5% in 2025, driven by the expansion of the Tengiz oil field and continued strong public spending. However, without accelerated reform implementation, medium-term growth is expected to remain at its estimated potential of 3-3.5%. External risks include a slowdown in major economies due to supply disruptions or renewed inflation, intensified regional conflicts, secondary sanctions, and higher commodity price volatility or oil pipeline disruptions.

In December 2024, Kazakhstan's Senate approved amendments to the 2024 budget, raising the deficit from 2.6% to 2.7% of GDP. Planned revenues were revised to KZT 14.1 trillion, down 12% or KZT 2 trillion from the original estimate, while expenditures increased by 0.4% to KZT 24 trillion. The budget deficit rose from KZT 3.5 trillion to KZT 3.6 trillion. Revenue was lowered due to reduced oil production, a significant increase in VAT refunds for 2023 amounting to KZT 594 billion, and unstable external factors, such as global commodity price volatility and logistics challenges faced by major companies. The 2025 draft budget envisages continued subdued tax revenues, higher spending, and National Fund transfers amounting to about 3.9% of GDP. Although increasing (to 24.8% in 2024), Kazakhstan's public debt remains low, with significant financial assets accumulated in the National Fund (about 23% of GDP at the end of 2023). The government plans to meet the majority of its financing needs through 2026 in the domestic market, supported by ample banking sector liquidity, relatively weak loan demand, and high return on equity (IMF). The National Bank of Kazakhstan has maintained a cautious monetary policy amid ongoing inflation pressures from higher energy tariffs and fiscal underperformance. Inflation was estimated at 8.2% in 2024, still above the 5% target, as disinflation slowed due to rising domestic energy tariffs and an expansionary fiscal policy.

The unemployment rate stood at around 4.6% in Q4/2024. To improve living standards, the government implemented a 21.4% nominal increase in the minimum wage, effectively doubling it since 2021 (+70% rise in real terms). According to the World Bank, poverty, estimated at 7.9% (at USD 6.85/day) in 2024, is expected to decrease to 6.7% in 2025 and 6.1% in 2026 as growth continues and inflation subsides.

 
Main Indicators 2023 (E)2024 (E)2025 (E)2026 (E)2027 (E)
GDP (billions USD) 263.37292.55306.63325.47347.57
GDP (Constant Prices, Annual % Change) 5.13.55.54.13.6
GDP per Capita (USD) 13,26114,57015,11215,87416,784
General Government Balance (in % of GDP) -1.7-2.7-2.5-2.2-2.1
General Government Gross Debt (in % of GDP) 22.824.827.630.032.0
Inflation Rate (%) 14.68.67.26.35.4
Unemployment Rate (% of the Labour Force) 4.84.84.84.84.8
Current Account (billions USD) -8.73-4.49-8.29-10.03-10.96
Current Account (in % of GDP) -3.3-1.5-2.7-3.1-3.2

Source: IMF – World Economic Outlook Database , October 2021

Country Risk

See the country risk analysis provided by La Coface.

 

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Main Sectors of Industry

Kazakhstan benefits from multiple natural resources, including major deposits of oil, natural gas, coal, iron ore, manganese, chromium ore, nickel, cobalt, copper, lead, zinc, bauxite or uranium. Kazakhstan has a vast agricultural area, ranking 13th in the world, consisting of both arable land and pastures. The sector experienced a sharp decline following the collapse of the Soviet Union but has recovered over the past two decades. Agriculture now contributes 3.9% of GDP and employs 12.1% of the working population, according to the latest World Bank data. While the country practices extensive agriculture, ageing infrastructure hampers its development. More than half of its agricultural production comes from vegetable crops, including cereals such as wheat, oilseeds, and cucurbits. Kazakhstan is among the world's leading wheat producers, while livestock and dairy industries also play a significant role. The country is nearly self-sufficient in agri-food production. According to government figures, agricultural output in 2024 reached KZT 8.282 trillion, marking a 13.7% increase from the previous year. Livestock production grew by 3.6% to KZT 3.269 trillion, while crop production saw a significant rise of 21.1%, reaching KZT 4.955 trillion.

The Kazakh industry sector - accounting for 32.3% of GDP and employing 21.6% of the working population - comprises diverse subsectors, including oil and gas extraction, mining, metallurgy, chemicals, machinery manufacturing, and agriculture. Kazakhstan is renowned for its significant reserves of oil, natural gas, and minerals, making extraction and processing key industries. The country's metallurgical sector specializes in the production of steel, while chemical industries focus on petrochemicals and fertilizers. Machinery manufacturing includes a wide range of products, from agricultural machinery to industrial equipment. In 2024, Kazakhstan's industrial production reached KZT 50.125 trillion, marking a 2.8% increase from the previous year, according to the National Statistics Bureau. The extractive sector saw a slight decline of 0.2%, totalling KZT 22.182 trillion and accounting for 44.3% of overall production. The manufacturing sector grew by 5.9% to KZT 24.503 trillion, making up 48.9% of the total. The supply of electricity, gas, steam, hot water, and air conditioning increased by 4.5% to KZT 2.972 trillion. However, the water supply and waste management sector experienced a slight decline of 0.3%, totalling KZT 468.6 billion.

The tertiary sector is the main sector in Kazakhstan and is growing steadily. It accounts for 56.3% of GDP and employs 66.3% of the working population. The financial sector, transport and technology are the main services produced in the country. The tourism sector is also pivotal: in 2024, Kazakhstan welcomed 11.5 million foreign tourists, nearly doubling the number from 2023. Accommodation revenues also saw a significant increase of 27%, reaching KZT 224 billion (USD 432.8 million). The banking sector is buoyant, with banks reporting strong profitability (the average return on average equity in regulatory accounts was 34% in the first nine months of 2024 - Firch Ratings). Finally, retail trade grew by 9.8% in 2024, reaching KZT 22.445 trillion (approximately USD 42.51 billion). Retail sales of goods by commercial enterprises rose by 3.9%, while food products accounted for 32.6% of total retail trade, according to the Bureau of National Statistics.

 
Breakdown of Economic Activity By Sector Agriculture Industry Services
Employment By Sector (in % of Total Employment) 12.1 21.6 66.3
Value Added (in % of GDP) 3.9 32.3 56.3
Value Added (Annual % Change) -7.4 8.1 5.2

Source: World Bank - Latest available data.

 
Monetary Indicators 20162017201820192020
Kazakhstan Tenge (KZT) - Average Annual Exchange Rate For 1 USD 342.16326.00344.71382.70412.95

Source: World Bank - Latest available data.

 

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Foreign Trade

Kazakhstan is open to international trade, which represents 62% of its GDP (World Bank, latest data available). The country has an export-oriented economy that is highly dependent on shipments of oil and related products. In January–December 2023, Kazakhstan's exports were dominated by crude oil and crude oil products derived from bituminous minerals (53.8%), followed by radioactive chemical elements and isotopes (4.4%), refined copper and raw copper alloys (4.1%), copper ores and concentrates (3.9%), ferroalloys (3%), and natural gas in a gaseous state (2.6%). On the import side, the largest share consisted of cars (5%), telephone sets (3%), vehicle bodies and cabins (2.6%), medicinal products (2.3%), and motor vehicle parts and accessories (1.9% - data Kazakh Bureau of National Statistics).

In the same period, Kazakhstan's primary export partner countries included Italy (18.9%), China (18.7%), Russia (12.4%), the Netherlands (5.2%), Turkey (5%), and the Republic of Korea (4.8%); whereas imports came chiefly from China (27.4%), Russia (26.5%), Germany (5.2%), the U.S. (4.2%), the Republic of Korea (3.6%), and Turkey (3.3%). The country has been a WTO member since 2015 and has trade agreements with many countries in its region. It is also a member of the Eurasian Economic Union (Russia, Belarus, Armenia, Kyrgyzstan, and Kazakhstan), and the Common Economic Zone (Belarus and Russia). The Enhanced Partnership and Cooperation Agreement (EPCA) was signed in 2015 between the country and the European Union, and a revised version entered into force in March 2020.

The country has been recording trade surpluses since 1998 mainly due to the rise in shipments of oil and other commodities. As oil and gas are among Kazakhstan's main exports, the country's trade balance is affected by global commodity prices. The country has been recording trade surpluses since 1998 mainly due to the rise in shipments of oil and other commodities. As oil and gas are among Kazakhstan's main exports, the country's trade balance is affected by global commodity prices. In 2023, Kazakhstan exported goods worth USD 78.5 billion against USD 60.6 billion in imports (-7.1% and +19% y-o-y, respectively). Concerning services, exports stood at USD 10.7 billion, lower than imports (USD 13 billion). According to the World Bank, the country’s trade balance in goods and services was positive by 7% of its GDP in 2023, down from 14.8% one year earlier. Preliminary figures from the Bureau of National Statistics show that Kazakhstan's foreign trade turnover in January–December 2024 totalled USD 141.4 billion, marking a 1.3% increase compared to the same period in 2023 in nominal terms. Exports amounted to USD 81.6 billion, reflecting a 3.1% increase in nominal terms, while imports totalled USD 59.7 billion, showing a 1% decrease in nominal terms.

 
Foreign Trade Values 20192020202120222023
Imports of Goods (million USD) 37,75737,22241,17150,93460,655
Exports of Goods (million USD) 57,30946,44760,62584,59378,533
Imports of Services (million USD) 11,5418,4468,0359,51813,028
Exports of Services (million USD) 7,7545,2085,9357,96810,716

Source: World Trade Organisation (WTO) ; Latest available data

Foreign Trade Indicators 20192020202120222023
Foreign Trade (in % of GDP) 64.957.058.768.361.8
Trade Balance (million USD) 18,4216,00924,22834,99719,862
Trade Balance (Including Service) (million USD) 14,6342,77222,12933,42118,164
Imports of Goods and Services (Annual % Change) 14.9-9.0-0.311.614.7
Exports of Goods and Services (Annual % Change) 2.0-11.32.310.21.9
Imports of Goods and Services (in % of GDP) 28.426.525.026.827.4
Exports of Goods and Services (in % of GDP) 36.430.533.641.634.4

Source: World Bank ; Latest available data

Foreign Trade Forecasts 20242025 (e)2026 (e)2027 (e)2028 (e)
Volume of exports of goods and services (Annual % change) 3.67.74.34.51.6
Volume of imports of goods and services (Annual % change) 0.13.94.03.63.6

Source: IMF, World Economic Outlook ; Latest available data

Note: (e) Estimated Data

 
International Economic Cooperation
Kazakhstan is a member of the Organization of Shanghai Cooperation, the Eurasian Economic Community, the Common Economic Area and the Organization of Economic Cooperation.
 

Main Partner Countries

Main Customers
(% of Exports)
2023
Italy 18.8%
China 18.7%
Netherlands 5.2%
Türkiye 5.0%
South Korea 4.8%
See More Countries 47.4%
Main Suppliers
(% of Imports)
2023
China 27.4%
United States 4.2%
South Korea 3.6%
Türkiye 3.3%
Japan 2.6%
See More Countries 58.8%

Source: Comtrade, Latest Available Data

 

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Political Outline

Current Political Leaders
President: Kasym-Zhomart TOKAYEV (since 20 March 2019)
Prime Minister: Olzhas BEKTENOV (since 6 February 2024)
Next Election Dates
Presidential: 2029
Senate (Upper House): January 2026
Mazhilis (Lower House): March 2028
Main Political Parties
The main political parties of the country are:

- Amanat: previously known as "Nur Otan", centre, largest political party
- Auyl People's Democratic Patriotic Party (HDDP): social democracy, agrarianism
- Respublica Party: centre to centre-right
- Democratic Party of Kazakhstan (Aq Jol/Bright Path): centre, pro-reform, pro-business
- People's Party of Kazakhstan (QHP): left-wing, social democratic, originally funded as the Communist People's Party of Kazakhstan (QKHP)
- Nationwide Social Democratic Party (JSDP): social democracy.
Executive Power
The President of Kazakhstan is the head of state and the Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces. He can propose constitutional amendments, appoint the Prime Minister (with parliamentary approval), and dissolve the lower house of parliament under specific conditions. He may also call for a referendum following legal procedures. The Prime Minister is the head of government and, along with the Council of Ministers, is appointed with presidential approval.
Legislative Power
The Parliament consists of two houses. The Mazhilis, the lower house, consists of 98 members, of which 69 are directly elected in a single national constituency by party-list proportional representation, and 29 are directly elected in single-seat constituencies to serve 5-year terms. The Senate, the upper house, is composed of 50 members, 40 of whom are indirectly elected by regional legislatures, while the remaining 10 are appointed by the President, including five in consultation with the Assembly of People of Kazakhstan.
 

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