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Economic and political overview

Economic Overview

Jordan has demonstrated impressive resilience, maintaining stability and growth despite regional and global crises. This resilience resulted from the authorities' continued pursuit of sound macroeconomic policies and reform progress over the past several years, as well as significant international support. However, as regional conflicts continued and expanded, they increasingly impacted Jordan’s economy, dampening growth and affecting government finances. Growth was estimated to have moderated to 2.3% in 2024, down from 2.7% in 2023. While this was only a slight decrease from earlier projections, the composition of growth shifted, with stronger net exports compensating for weaker domestic demand. Growth is expected to remain subdued in 2025, at 2.5%, but is projected to pick up in the following years, assuming a resolution to the conflict and continued sound macroeconomic policies and reforms. However, risks to the outlook remained high (IMF).

Since the pandemic, Jordan has made notable progress in fiscal consolidation despite facing external shocks and financial losses from public utilities. Public debt rose to nearly 90% of GDP by end-2023, up from 74.3% in 2018. High poverty, unemployment, and the need for social support, along with significant development and infrastructure needs, including climate change mitigation, continue to put pressure on public finances. Nevertheless, to ensure debt sustainability, the central government reduced the primary deficit from 5.7% of GDP in 2020 to 2.7% in 2023. In 2024, government revenues were significantly affected by weaker domestic demand and a sharper-than-expected decline in the prices of key export commodities, leading to a recalibration of fiscal targets. The overall general government primary deficit (excluding grants) remained largely unchanged at 1.3% of GDP, compared to 1.4% in 2023, with public debt projected to stay just above 90% of GDP by the end of 2024. Despite ongoing external challenges, the authorities remain focused on reducing public debt to 80% of GDP by 2028 (from an estimated 91.7% in 2024), while being mindful of the substantial debt service obligations in the years ahead. The Central Bank of Jordan (CBJ) is committed to maintaining monetary stability and its exchange rate peg to the U.S. dollar. With low inflation and expectations, the CBJ has lowered its policy rate in line with the U.S. Federal Reserve. Inflation is projected to be around 2% in 2025, from 2.1% in 2024 (data IMF).

Jordan faces significant challenges such as high unemployment, accessibility to affordable basic goods and services, and economic inequality. In addition to Palestinian refugees, Jordan has been contending with a substantial influx of refugees, notably from Syria, which could further strain already limited resources. Jordan also has to deal with a high unemployment rate, at around 21% in 2024 (IMF), a high poverty rate and high levels of inequality. Unemployment affects university degree holders and women much more negatively, further contributing to inequalities.

 
Main Indicators 2023 (E)2024 (E)2025 (E)2026 (E)2027 (E)
GDP (billions USD) 50.8953.3156.1159.1862.48
GDP (Constant Prices, Annual % Change) 2.62.42.93.03.0
GDP per Capita (USD) 4,4884,6824,9045,1405,384
General Government Balance (in % of GDP) -6.3-6.7-6.4-5.8-4.4
General Government Gross Debt (in % of GDP) 92.891.789.286.083.7
Inflation Rate (%) 2.12.12.42.52.5
Unemployment Rate (% of the Labour Force) 22.00.00.00.00.0
Current Account (billions USD) -1.76-2.66-2.22-2.32-2.45
Current Account (in % of GDP) -3.5-5.0-4.0-3.9-3.9

Source: IMF – World Economic Outlook Database , October 2021

Country Risk

See the country risk analysis provided by La Coface.

 

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Main Sectors of Industry

Agriculture in Jordan accounts for 4.8% of the GDP and employs approximately 3.2% of the workforce, according to the latest data from the World Bank. The country faces challenges in agricultural development due to the scarcity of water, with an agricultural area covering less than one-eighth of its territory. Principal crops include wheat, barley, lentils, tomatoes, cucumbers, eggplant, citrus fruits, olives, strawberries, and grapes. Jordan's natural resources primarily consist of phosphates and potassium. The country has also discovered six uranium deposits. Jordan is a net food-importing country, importing up to 98% of consumable items, including rice, frozen chicken cuts, nuts, fresh apples, cheese, beef, and food preparations. Due to water scarcity, agriculture has been steadily declining as a sector of the overall economy for years. However, in recent years, Jordan's agricultural exports have grown significantly, with vegetables, fruits, and cereals making up nearly 50% of total agricultural export revenue (FAO).

Industry contributes 24.8% to Jordan's GDP and employs around 18.3% of the workforce. Mining and quarrying, particularly of phosphate and potash, are significant industries in the country. The manufacturing sector, however, is relatively limited and dominated by textiles, which has faced challenges due to international competition. Manufacturing as a whole is estimated to represent about 17% of GDP. The industrial sector in Jordan saw a real growth of 4% in the first three quarters of 2024 compared to the same period in 2023, according to the Jordan Chamber of Industry (JCI). Key sectors showed positive growth, with mining and quarrying up 4.9%, manufacturing industries rising by 3.8%, and the electricity and water sector increasing by 4.5%.

The services sector is the largest contributor to Jordan's economy, accounting for 60.7% of GDP and employing 78.4% of the workforce. Communication technologies and financial services are particularly active sectors in the country. Distribution and tourism infrastructure also contribute substantially to GDP, although they have experienced some slowdown in recent years. Government services play a significant role in the services sector, contributing 14.9% to GDP and employing 41% of the active population, according to the Jordan Strategy Forum. The tourism sector is also pivotal to the country’s economy: according to the 2024 Annual Tourism Report, the number of international visitors to the Kingdom in 2024 exceeded the target set in the Economic Modernisation Vision (EMV), reaching approximately 6.108 million—13.8% above the projected 5.367 million visitors, despite the exacerbating conflicts in the area.

 
Breakdown of Economic Activity By Sector Agriculture Industry Services
Employment By Sector (in % of Total Employment) 3.2 18.3 78.4
Value Added (in % of GDP) 4.8 24.8 60.7
Value Added (Annual % Change) 5.9 3.5 2.5

Source: World Bank - Latest available data.

 
Monetary Indicators 20162017201820192020
Jordanian Dinar (JOD) - Average Annual Exchange Rate For 1 USD 0.710.710.710.700.71

Source: World Bank - Latest available data.

 

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Foreign Trade

Jordan is very open to international trade to the extent that it is dependent on foreign capital; however, its relative share of GDP has diminished considerably after 2014 and is estimated at 100% (World Bank, latest data available). Exports are spearheaded by special garments (14.8%), potassic fertilisers (7.3%), natural calcium phosphates (6.7%), diphosphorus pentaoxide (6.6%), and articles of jewellery (6.5%); whereas imports are led by petroleum oils (7.1%), motor cars (6.3%), gold (5.3%), petroleum oils (4.1%), and fabrics (2.3% - data Comtrade for 2023).

The United States was by far the main destination for Jordanian exports (22.9% of all exports in 2023), followed by India (13.7%), Saudi Arabia (11.5%), Iraq (7.5%), and the United Arab Emirates (4.3%). On the other hand, China (17.5%), Saudi Arabia (14.2%), the United States (6.4%), India (6.0%), and the UAE (5.3%) were the main suppliers in 2023 (data Comtrade). Jordan is a member of the WTO and signed a free-trade agreement with the U.S. in 2001, allowing the removal of customs duties on the majority of goods and services since 2010 when it was fully implemented. Jordan has also signed an Agreement of Association with the EU. In addition to the United States, Jordan is also party to bilateral trade agreements with Canada and Singapore and is a signatory to several regional trade agreements including the European Free Trade Association (Norway, Switzerland, Liechtenstein), Greater Arab Free Trade Agreement (GAFTA), and Aghadir Agreement (Egypt, Morocco, Tunisia) which is connected to the Association Agreement (EU).

Jordan's trade balance is structurally in deficit, mainly because of the country's reliance on hydrocarbon imports. The exports of goods were stable at USD 12.7 billion and the imports to USD 25.4 billion in 2023 (-6.9% year-on-year - data WTO). However, the country is a net service exporter (USD 10.4 billion in exports against USD 5.9 billion in imports in 2023). The World Bank estimated the country’s trade deficit at 13.2% of GDP in the same year (from 19% in 2022). In 2024, six industrial products dominated Jordan's exports, accounting for 57% of total exports valued at JOD 8.579 billion (USD 12.1 billion), according to the Department of Statistics. Apparel and accessories led with a 19.4% share and a 25.6% year-on-year growth, reaching JOD 1.665 billion. Chemical fertilisers followed with 11.1%, while pharmaceuticals contributed 7.1%, growing 14.8% to JOD 611 million. While apparel and pharmaceuticals saw growth, traditional sectors underperformed. Chemical fertilisers fell 2.3% to JOD 955 million, jewellery dropped 21.5% to JOD 648 million, raw potash declined 28.4% to JOD 466 million, and phosphate exports decreased 9.3% to JOD 547 million.

 
Foreign Trade Values 20192020202120222023
Imports of Goods (million USD) 19,17017,23321,54227,36425,470
Exports of Goods (million USD) 8,3177,9439,35812,78012,763
Imports of Services (million USD) 4,9113,0954,1545,6795,971
Exports of Services (million USD) 7,8532,5014,5127,95510,428

Source: World Trade Organisation (WTO) ; Latest available data

Foreign Trade Indicators 20192020202120222023
Foreign Trade (in % of GDP) 85.766.180.3104.1100.3
Trade Balance (million USD) -8,735-7,386-9,810-11,562-10,366
Trade Balance (Including Service) (million USD) -5,793-7,980-9,452-9,275-6,736
Imports of Goods and Services (in % of GDP) 49.442.250.461.656.7
Exports of Goods and Services (in % of GDP) 36.323.930.042.543.5

Source: World Bank ; Latest available data

Foreign Trade Forecasts 20242025 (e)2026 (e)2027 (e)2028 (e)
Volume of exports of goods and services (Annual % change) 1.35.83.63.43.3
Volume of imports of goods and services (Annual % change) 1.83.03.13.23.1

Source: IMF, World Economic Outlook ; Latest available data

Note: (e) Estimated Data

 
International Economic Cooperation
The Jordanian economy is very open. The country is part of the Greater Arab Free Trade Area(GAFTA), a pact of the Arab League entered into force in January 2005 which aims to form an Arabic free trade area. It has also signed bilateral free trade agreements with most of the countries of the Arab League. Jordan has also signed an agreement with the European Free Trade Association (EFTA), the United States and Singapore. Jordan has signed the Euro-Mediterranean Association Agreement which provides for a free trade area between the European Union and the other signatory countries. Finally, Jordan is a member of the Agadir agreement which provides for a system of free trade between Jordan, Tunisia and Egypt. Jordan also signed a Free Trade Agreement with Canada.
 

Main Partner Countries

Main Customers
(% of Exports)		 2023
United States 22.9%
India 13.7%
Saudi Arabia 11.5%
United Arab Emirates 4.3%
China 2.8%
See More Countries 44.7%
Main Suppliers
(% of Imports)		 2023
China 17.5%
Saudi Arabia 14.2%
United States 6.4%
India 6.0%
United Arab Emirates 5.3%
See More Countries 50.6%

Source: Comtrade, Latest Available Data

 

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Political Outline

Current Political Leaders
King: ABDALLAH II (since 7 February 1999)
Prime Minister: Jafar HASSAN (since 15 September 2024)
Next Election Dates
House of Representatives: September 2028
Senate: October 2028
Main Political Parties
Jordan remains a monarchy, with the King holding significant executive powers. Political parties were legalized in 1992, but their influence has been limited.

In the 2024 parliamentary elections, the Islamic Action Front (IAF), the political arm of the Muslim Brotherhood, secured 31 out of 138 seats, marking their highest representation in decades. The 2024 elections saw 107 seats held by political parties, a significant increase from previous elections.

Despite this, tribal and familial networks continue to strongly influence Jordanian politics.

Major Political Parties:

- IAF: 31 seats, Islamist policies

- National Current Party: 21 seats, nationalist

- Eradah Party: 19 seats, reformist

- Taqadum Party: 8 seats, economic development

While party representation has grown, tribal influences remain key in shaping political outcomes.
Executive Power
The head of state in Jordan is the King, and the monarchy is hereditary. The King enjoys executive powers and signs and executes all laws. He appoints and dismisses all judges by decree, approves amendments to the constitution, and has the right to declare war. The King appoints the Prime Minister as head of government, although the Prime Minister does not have a fixed term of office. The Cabinet, led by the Prime Minister, is appointed by the King.
Legislative Power
The legislature in Jordan is bicameral. Its Parliament consists of:

- The Senate, with 65 members, who are appointed by the King to serve non-renewable terms.

- The House of Representatives, with 130 members, elected by popular vote based on a mixed-member proportional representation system, to serve four-year terms.

The King’s power of veto may be overridden by a two-thirds vote of both houses of the National Assembly (the Senate and the House of Representatives).
 

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