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Economic Overview

The Jordanian economy, severely impacted by the refugee influx and grown increasing dependence on international grants that followed the Syrian and subsequent refugee crisis, had to deal with the global effect of the COVID pandemic.  Nevertheless, its GDP growth amounted to 2.2% in 2021 and 2.5% the following year. Last year, the country’s economy grew an estimated 2.6% according to the IMF, supported by private consumption. The IMF outlook points to a growth rate of 2.7% in 2024 and 3% the following year, although the Israel-Hamas conflict may jeopardize Jordan’s growth prospects. The risk of the conflict directly threatening Jordan's exports, energy, water, or food supply is mitigated by long-term gas contracts, alternative trade routes, supply arrangements, and strategic reserves of fuel and wheat. Nevertheless, growth might decelerate in 2024 due to heightened political uncertainty and expected decreases in tourism inflows, particularly from the U.S. and Europe.

Jordan is one of the few countries in the Middle East that does not rely as much on its natural resources due to scarcity of hydrocarbon and water resources. Nevertheless, it is also one of the most committed countries to financial reforms within its region (privatisation, tax reforms, opening of the banking sector, etc.). Fiscal consolidation should persist in accordance with IMF program goals. Economic expansion and tax collection reforms, such as e-invoicing and track-and-trace measures for alcohol, are projected to boost tax revenues (constituting 70% of total revenues). External grants are forecasted to hit 2% of GDP in 2024, notably with the US, Jordan’s primary external contributor, elevating its aid to USD 1.45 billion annually for 2024-2029. The IMF estimated the general government deficit at 4.4% of GDP in 2023, with a stable outlook over the forecast horizon. The overall government debt, which consolidates central government debt holdings of the Social Security Investment Fund (SSIF), along with the debt of the Water Authority of Jordan (WAJ) and NEPCO guaranteed debt, stood at 93.8% of GDP at the end of 2023, slightly down from 94.1% in 2022. The IMF anticipates a gradual decrease in debt, with projections indicating it will decline to 89.5% by 2025. Meanwhile, the inflation rate was relatively low in 2023 (2.7%) and should hover around the same percentage in the short term. Overall, Jordan receives substantial financial and technical support from both multilateral and bilateral partners, including recent announcements of financial assistance from the UAE, Germany, and the EU.

Jordan faces significant challenges such as high unemployment, accessibility to affordable basic goods and services, and economic inequality. In addition to Palestinian refugees, Jordan has been contending with a substantial influx of refugees, notably from Syria, which could further strain already limited resources. Jordan also has to deal with a high unemployment rate, that rose further to 19.2% by the end of 2022 (World Bank), a high poverty rate and high levels of inequality. Unemployment affects university degree holders and women much more negatively, further contributing to inequalities.

 
Main Indicators 20222023 (E)2024 (E)2025 (E)2026 (E)
GDP (billions USD) 48.7250.9953.5756.5659.71
GDP (Constant Prices, Annual % Change) 2.42.62.63.03.0
GDP per Capita (USD) 4,3174,4984,7054,9435,185
General Government Balance (in % of GDP) -7.1-6.7-6.8-6.3-5.9
General Government Gross Debt (in % of GDP) 91.891.291.490.387.5
Inflation Rate (%) 4.22.22.72.42.5
Unemployment Rate (% of the Labour Force) 22.90.00.00.00.0
Current Account (billions USD) -3.87-3.58-3.40-2.55-2.43
Current Account (in % of GDP) -7.9-7.0-6.3-4.5-4.1

Source: IMF – World Economic Outlook Database , October 2021

Country Risk

See the country risk analysis provided by La Coface.

 

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Main Sectors of Industry

Agriculture in Jordan accounts for 4.8% of the GDP and employs approximately 3% of the workforce, according to the latest data from the World Bank. The country faces challenges in agricultural development due to the scarcity of water, with an agricultural area covering less than one-eighth of its territory. Principal crops include wheat, barley, lentil, tomato, cucumbers, eggplant, citrus fruits, olives, strawberries, and grapes. Jordan's natural resources primarily consist of phosphates and potassium. The country has also discovered six uranium deposits, which account for 3% of the world's reserves, and has signed numerous international agreements in the field of atomic energy.

Industry contributes 23.9% to Jordan's GDP and employs around 18% of the workforce. Mining and quarrying, particularly of phosphate and potash, are significant industries in the country. The manufacturing sector, however, is relatively limited and dominated by textiles, which has faced challenges due to international competition. Manufacturing is estimated to represent about 17% of GDP. In the first half of 2023, Jordan's industrial exports grew by approximately 2%, reaching JOD 4 billion, according to the Jordan Chamber of Industry.

The services sector is the largest contributor to Jordan's economy, accounting for 60.4% of GDP and employing 79% of the workforce. Communication technologies and financial services are particularly active sectors in the country. Distribution and tourism infrastructure also contribute substantially to GDP, although they have experienced some slowdown in recent years. Tourism revenue in Jordan increased to JOD 7,409.7 million in 2023, representing a 27.4% year-on-year increase, with 6,353,800 visitors welcomed during the year, as reported by the Central Bank. The construction and transport sectors are also expanding consistently. Government services play a significant role in the services sector, contributing 14.9% to GDP and employing 41% of the active population, according to the Jordan Strategy Forum.

 
Breakdown of Economic Activity By Sector Agriculture Industry Services
Employment By Sector (in % of Total Employment) 3.2 17.6 79.1
Value Added (in % of GDP) 4.7 24.5 61.2
Value Added (Annual % Change) 3.3 3.3 2.2

Source: World Bank - Latest available data.

 
Monetary Indicators 20162017201820192020
Jordanian Dinar (JOD) - Average Annual Exchange Rate For 1 USD 0.710.710.710.700.71

Source: World Bank - Latest available data.

 

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Foreign Trade

Jordan is very open to international trade, so much so that there is a dependence on foreign capital; however, its relative share of GDP has diminished considerably after 2014 and is estimated at 86% (World Bank, latest data available). Exports are spearheaded by the textile industry, followed by the chemical and mining sectors (fertiliser, medicine, potash and phosphate). Jordan mainly imports petroleum oils, gold, motor cars, and fabrics (data Comtrade).

The United States was by far the main destination for Jordanian exports (20% of all exports in 2022), followed by India (14.6%), Saudi Arabia (9.9%), Iraq (7.5%), Indonesia (2.7%), and the United Arab Emirates (2.7%). On the other hand, China (15.3%), Saudi Arabia (14.9%), United Arab Emirates (7.8%), United States (5.5%), India (5.1%) were the main suppliers in 2022 (data Comtrade). Jordan is a member of the WTO and signed a free-trade agreement with the U.S in 2001, allowing the removal of customs duties on the majority of goods and services since 2010 when it was fully implemented. Jordan has also signed an Agreement of Association with the EU. In addition to the United States, Jordan is also party to bilateral trade agreements with Canada and Singapore and is a signatory to several regional trade agreements including the European Free Trade Association (Norway, Switzerland, Liechtenstein), Greater Arab Free Trade Agreement (GAFTA), and Aghadir Agreement (Egypt, Morocco, Tunisia) which is connected to the Association Agreement (EU).

Jordan's trade balance is structurally in deficit, mainly because of the country's reliance on hydrocarbon imports. The exports of goods amounted to USD 12.3 billion and the imports to USD 27.2 billion in 2022, up by 32.3% and 26.6% year-on-year, respectively (data WTO). However, the country is a net service exporter (USD 7.9 billion in exports against USD 5.7 billion in imports in 2022). According to the Jordan Department of Statistics, the value of exports in the first eleven months of 2023 reached JOD 8,221 million (of which 615 million of re-exports), whereas imports stood at JOD 16,952 million.

 
Foreign Trade Values 20192020202120222023
Imports of Goods (million USD) 19,17017,23321,54227,36425,470
Exports of Goods (million USD) 8,3177,9439,35812,78012,763
Imports of Services (million USD) 4,9113,0954,1545,6795,971
Exports of Services (million USD) 7,8532,5014,5127,95510,428

Source: World Trade Organisation (WTO) ; Latest available data

Foreign Trade Indicators 20182019202020212022
Foreign Trade (in % of GDP) 88.085.8n/an/an/a
Trade Balance (million USD) -10,302-8,735-7,386-9,810-11,895
Trade Balance (Including Service) (million USD) -7,823-5,793-7,980-9,452-9,619
Imports of Goods and Services (in % of GDP) 52.849.2n/an/an/a
Exports of Goods and Services (in % of GDP) 35.136.7n/an/an/a

Source: World Bank ; Latest available data

Foreign Trade Forecasts 20232024 (e)2025 (e)2026 (e)2027 (e)
Volume of exports of goods and services (Annual % change) 4.80.64.63.63.6
Volume of imports of goods and services (Annual % change) 3.41.82.73.03.2

Source: IMF, World Economic Outlook ; Latest available data

Note: (e) Estimated Data

 
International Economic Cooperation
The Jordanian economy is very open. The country is part of the Greater Arab Free Trade Area(GAFTA), a pact of the Arab League entered into force in January 2005 which aims to form an Arabic free trade area. It has also signed bilateral free trade agreements with most of the countries of the Arab League. Jordan has also signed an agreement with the European Free Trade Association (EFTA), the United States and Singapore. Jordan has signed the Euro-Mediterranean Association Agreement which provides for a free trade area between the European Union and the other signatory countries. Finally, Jordan is a member of the Agadir agreement which provides for a system of free trade between Jordan, Tunisia and Egypt. Jordan also signed a Free Trade Agreement with Canada.
 

Main Partner Countries

Main Customers
(% of Exports)
2023
United States 22.9%
India 13.7%
Saudi Arabia 11.5%
United Arab Emirates 4.3%
China 2.8%
See More Countries 44.7%
Main Suppliers
(% of Imports)
2023
China 17.5%
Saudi Arabia 14.2%
United States 6.4%
India 6.0%
United Arab Emirates 5.3%
See More Countries 50.6%

Source: Comtrade, Latest Available Data

 

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Political Outline

Current Political Leaders
King: Abdullah II (since 7 February 1999) – hereditary
Prime Minister: Bisher Al-Khasawneh (since 12 October 2020)
Next Election Dates
House of Representatives: 2025
Main Political Parties
Jordan is an absolute monarchy and the parliament maintains a limited role in the governance of the country. Political parties were not legalised in the country until 1992. The Islamic Action Front (IAF), a right-wing opposition force and a faction of the Muslim Brotherhood in Jordan, dominates political spheres and obtained 15 seats in the 2016 elections, after having boycotted the previous two in 2010 and 2013, but only 5 seats at the latest 2020 election. Jordanian politics tend to be influenced by tribal or familial politics rather than by formal political parties. Indeed, at the 2020 general election, wealthy business executives and tribal independents dominated, while strong, reform-oriented members of parliament lost their seats. Broader-based coalitions fared poorly. Less than 10% of the 130 members of the parliament belong to political parties. The most influential opposition party, the IAF, lost almost half of its seats.

Some major parties include:

- Islamic Centrist Party: centre, moderate, promotes social reform
- Zamzam: centre-right, Islamic democracy
- National Current Party: centre, nationalist.

Executive Power
The head of state is the King. The monarchy is hereditary. The King enjoys executive powers. The King signs and executes all laws. He appoints and dismisses all judges by decree, approves amendments to the constitution and has the right to declare war. The King appoints the Prime Minister as head of the government, having no fixed term of office. The cabinet, led by the Prime Minister, is appointed by the King.
Legislative Power
The legislature is bicameral in Jordan. Its parliament consists of: the Senate having 65 members who are appointed by the King to serve four-year terms; and the House of Representatives having 130 members elected by popular vote on the basis of proportional representation to serve four-year terms. The King’s power of veto may be overridden by a two-thirds vote of both houses of the National Assembly.
 

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