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Economic and political overview

Economic Overview

Italy has a diversified economy, ranking as the third-largest in the Eurozone by GDP. After returning to its pre-COVID level in 2022, the country’s GDP grew by 0.7% in 2023 and kept a similar pace in 2024 as the unwinding of housing renovation tax credits weighed on construction activity, despite a pickup in infrastructure investment supported by the RRF. Net exports contributed positively to GDP growth, primarily due to a sharp contraction in goods imports. In 2025, the implementation of Italy’s RRP is expected to accelerate, largely offsetting the contractionary national fiscal stance. Private consumption is forecast to gain momentum, although overall investment is projected to decline due to reduced construction activity for housing renovations. By 2026, RRF-related spending and improved financing conditions are anticipated to boost investment, alongside continued growth in consumption. GDP growth is forecast to reach 1% in 2025 and 1.2% in 2026 (data EU Commission).

The country’s primary budget (which excludes interest payments) is structurally positive; however, the interest cost on the government’s debt weighs heavily on Italy’s accounts, with the general government budget being constantly in deficit. In 2024, Italy's general government deficit declined to 3.8% of GDP from 7.2% in 2023. This significant drop was driven by the phase-out of energy price mitigation measures (1% of GDP) and tax credits for housing renovations (around 3.5% of GDP). Despite weak nominal GDP growth, strong tax revenue, particularly from personal income tax and withholding taxes on financial assets, contributed to the reduction. These factors were only partially offset by labour tax cuts, pension indexation to high 2023 inflation, and public sector wage increases linked to contract renewals for 2022-24. While the primary balance returned to a positive 0.1% of GDP, rising debt servicing costs pushed interest expenditure up to 3.9% of GDP. In 2025, the deficit is projected to decline further to 3.4% of GDP, with the primary surplus increasing to 0.5% of GDP, driven by moderate primary expenditure and stable interest costs. Despite having one of the highest debt-to-GDP ratios globally, Italy has managed to reduce its debt by nearly 20 pp of GDP from its 2020 peak, returning to pre-pandemic levels—a target achieved by a few Eurozone countries. After declining to 134.8% of GDP in 2023, the debt-to-GDP ratio is projected to rise during 2024-26, reaching 139.3% by the end of the period (data EU Commission). This increase is driven by stock-flow adjustments stemming from the lagged cash impact of tax credits for past housing renovation deficits, compounded by a less favourable interest-growth-rate differential despite positive and rising primary balances. Following the continued decline in energy prices until October 2024, headline inflation fell to 1% for the year, down from 5.7% in 2023 (official governmental data). Stable energy prices projected for 2025-26 are expected to keep HICP components subdued, except for services, where wage pressures will likely persist. Headline inflation is forecast at 1.9% in 2025 and 1.7% in 2026 (EU Commission).

In 2024, employment grew by 1.6%, down from 1.9% in 2023, with further deceleration expected in 2025-26. Rising labour market participation is projected to outpace the decline in the working-age population, pushing the unemployment rate down to 6.2% by 2026 from 7% in 2024. Nominal wage growth reached an estimated 4% in 2024, driven by contract renewals reflecting past price increases, and is expected to moderate gradually. Italy has high levels of youth unemployment (19% as of Nov. 2023, according to ISTAT), and regional inequalities between the highly industrialised and dynamic North and the poorer, rural southern “Mezzogiorno” areas are still evident. Furthermore, Italy has to face a falling birth rate and a declining population. Italy’s GDP per capita (PPP) was estimated at USD 62,603 by the IMF in 2024, just below the EU-27 average (USD 64,680).

 
Main Indicators 2023 (E)2024 (E)2025 (E)2026 (E)2027 (E)
GDP (billions USD) 2,301.602,376.512,459.602,534.562,595.79
GDP (Constant Prices, Annual % Change) 0.70.70.70.90.6
GDP per Capita (USD) 39,01240,28741,71443,02044,108
General Government Balance (in % of GDP) -8.0-4.4-4.5-4.0-3.6
General Government Gross Debt (in % of GDP) 134.6136.9138.7140.2141.4
Inflation Rate (%) 5.91.32.12.02.0
Unemployment Rate (% of the Labour Force) 7.77.07.27.37.5
Current Account (billions USD) -0.3325.7335.0140.5651.16
Current Account (in % of GDP) -0.01.11.41.62.0

Source: IMF – World Economic Outlook Database , October 2021

Country Risk

See the country risk analysis provided by La Coface.

 

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Main Sectors of Industry

Italy is one of the main agricultural players in the EU, being the biggest European producer of rice, fruits, vegetables and wine. The agricultural sector represents 1.9% of Italian GDP, while the agri-food system in general is estimated to account for 15% of GDP (data EU Commission). The primary sector employs 4% of the workforce (World Bank, latest data available), and is comprised of around 1.1 million farms of which almost half have a small agricultural output (European Commission). The country’s main crops include cereals (particularly wheat), corn, barley, rice and oats. Italy is also the first world producer of wine and the first producer of tobacco in Europe. According to figures by ISTAT, in 2024, agricultural production and value added increased by 1.4% and 3.5% in volume, respectively. Production volumes rose notably in crop farming (+1.5%) and the livestock sector (+0.6%), while agricultural service activities declined (-1.5%). Secondary activities maintained a positive trend (+5.2%). It was a favorable year for fruit (+5.4%), fresh vegetables (+3.8%), and wine (+3.5%), but cereals (-7.1%), olive oil (-5%), and forage (-2.5%) experienced declines.

Italy is a primary industrial country, with the secondary sector accounting for 22.9% of GDP and employing 27% of the active population (World Bank, latest data available). The country’s industrial activity is concentrated in the northern part of the country, including cities such as Turin, Milan and Venice. Much of the Italian industry is comprised of small and medium-sized family businesses, with the majority of Italian industrial companies having less than 50 employees. Italy is the largest global exporter of luxury goods (clothing, cars, etc.); other major Italian industries include precision machinery, motor vehicles, chemical products, pharmaceuticals, electrical items, fashion and clothing. The manufacturing sector alone accounts for 15% of GDP (World Bank). The country has suffered from deindustrialisation (especially during the global financial crisis), but it remains Europe's second-largest manufacturing power and the eight-largest worldwide. According to data by Confindustria, in the first nine months of 2024, Italian industrial production declined by 3.3% compared to the same period one year earlier. This was due to a sharp drop in the first quarter (-1.4% quarter-on-quarter), which gradually eased toward the end of spring (-0.9% in the second quarter). Despite this improvement, third-quarter data remained negative, with a further decrease of 0.6%.

The service sector constitutes almost two-thirds of Italian GDP (65%) and employs 70% of the country’s workforce. Tourism - one of the fastest growing and most profitable industries - comprises the largest part of the service sector (Italy is the fifth most visited country internationally and the third most visited in Europe): according to the national statistical agency ISTAT, tourism and its related activities generate around 6% of the economy’s added value. Business-related services also play an important role in the country’s economy. It is estimated that more than half of Italy’s 5 million companies are active in the tertiary sector. According to Istat, in 2024, retail sales showed a 0.7% increase in value, while sales volume declined by 0.4% compared to 2023.

 
Breakdown of Economic Activity By Sector Agriculture Industry Services
Employment By Sector (in % of Total Employment) 3.6 26.6 69.8
Value Added (in % of GDP) 1.9 22.9 65.0
Value Added (Annual % Change) -3.5 0.3 1.0

Source: World Bank - Latest available data.

 
Monetary Indicators 20162017201820192020
Euro (EUR) - Average Annual Exchange Rate For 1 USD 0.940.890.850.890.88

Source: World Bank - Latest available data.

 

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Foreign Trade

Italy has an export-oriented economy and is the 8th largest exporter and 12th largest importer worldwide, with trade making up 66% of its GDP (World Bank, latest data available). In 2023, the country’s main exports included machinery (16.1% of the total), transport equipment (10.8%), textiles and metal products (10.4% each), and pharmaceutical products (7.8%), whereas imports were led by petroleum and gas (11%), transport equipment (10.6%), metal products (10.5% each), food and beverage (7.3% each), and machinery (7.2% - data ISTAT for 2023). According to the latest figures by ISTAT, 14.7% of exports from Italian manufacturing companies came from micro and small enterprises (with 0-19 employees), and 32.2% came from medium-sized enterprises (50-249 employees). More than half (53%) came from large enterprises (more than 250 employees).

Italy’s main trading partners were Germany (11.9%), the U.S. (10.7%), France (10.1%), Spain (5.3%), and Switzerland (4.9%), whereas imports chiefly came from Germany (15.2%), China (8%), France (7.9%), the Netherlands (6.2%), and Spain (5.5%). Overall, the EU accounted for 51.6% of exports and 57% of imports (data 2023 from ISTAT). The stagnation of Italian merchandise exports in 2023 was driven by a decline in sales to EU markets (-2.2%), resulting from a sharp drop in quantities (-6%) despite a rise in average unit values (+4%). At the same time, exports to non-EU markets grew by 2.5%, supported by a significant increase in average unit values (+6.7%) despite a smaller decline in volumes (-3.9%).

Since the sovereign debt crisis in 2010 and after several years of registering a trade deficit, Italy has changed direction and has recorded positive trade balances in recent years (with the exception of 2022 due to a rise in energy prices).  According to WTO data, in 2023, the country exported goods worth USD 676.9 billion (+2.7%% year-on-year), while imports decreased by 7.8%, totalling USD 639.6 billion. In the same year, Italy exported services for a total value of USD 145.9 billion, while its imports amounted to USD 157.8 billion (+14.4% and +12.6% year-on-year, respectively). The overall trade balance was estimated to be positive by 1.2% of GDP by the World Bank. Preliminary data from ISTAT show that, in the first nine months of 2024, exports saw a slight annual decline (-0.7%), mainly due to reduced sales of motor vehicles (-13.2%), base metals and metal products (-5.5%), transport equipment excluding motor vehicles (-6.2%), and leather goods (-8.9%). Conversely, significant growth came from food, beverages, and tobacco (+8%), sporting goods, musical instruments, and medical equipment (+17.8%), as well as pharmaceutical and chemical products (+5.8%).

 
Foreign Trade Values 20192020202120222023
Imports of Goods (million USD) 475,006426,867567,421694,305639,630
Exports of Goods (million USD) 537,718499,792615,635658,557676,963
Imports of Services (million USD) 122,90294,672114,373140,068157,822
Exports of Services (million USD) 122,42185,350103,526127,452145,897

Source: World Trade Organisation (WTO) ; Latest available data

Foreign Trade Indicators 20192020202120222023
Foreign Trade (in % of GDP) 58.753.960.372.166.2
Trade Balance (million USD) 67,88778,58857,963-20,61736,709
Trade Balance (Including Service) (million USD) 67,35869,26646,497-32,68529,796
Imports of Goods and Services (Annual % Change) -1.1-12.516.013.2-0.4
Exports of Goods and Services (Annual % Change) 1.2-13.714.19.80.8
Imports of Goods and Services (in % of GDP) 27.725.229.136.932.5
Exports of Goods and Services (in % of GDP) 30.928.731.235.133.7

Source: World Bank ; Latest available data

Foreign Trade Forecasts 20242025 (e)2026 (e)2027 (e)2028 (e)
Volume of exports of goods and services (Annual % change) 1.20.71.61.60.8
Volume of imports of goods and services (Annual % change) -0.10.20.81.20.5

Source: IMF, World Economic Outlook ; Latest available data

Note: (e) Estimated Data

 
International Economic Cooperation
Italy is a member of the following international economic organisations: IMF, European Union, ICC, European Economic Area, WTO, Central European Initiative (CEI), G-7, G-8, G-10, G-20, OECD, among others. For the full list of economic and other international organisations in which participates Italy click here. International organisation membership of Italy is also outlined here.
Free Trade Agreements
The complete and up-to-date list of Free Trade Agreements signed by Italy can be consulted here.
 

Main Partner Countries

Main Customers
(% of Exports)		 2023
Germany 11.9%
United States 10.7%
France 10.1%
Spain 5.3%
Switzerland 4.9%
See More Countries 57.1%
Main Suppliers
(% of Imports)		 2023
Germany 15.2%
China 8.0%
France 7.9%
Netherlands 6.2%
Spain 5.5%
See More Countries 57.3%

Source: Comtrade, Latest Available Data

 

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Political Outline

Current Political Leaders
President: Sergio Mattarella (since 3 February 2015 - elected for a second term in January 2022)
Prime Minister (President of the Council of Ministers): Giorgia Meloni (since 22 October 2022)
Next Election Dates
Presidential: 2029
Legislative: September 2027
Current Political Context
The center-right government led by Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, who became the first female prime minister of Italy in 2022, continued to face challenges in balancing internal coalition dynamics. The coalition included her party, Fratelli d'Italia (FDI), along with the League (Lega) and Forza Italia (FI). On the other end, the main opposition parties, such as the Democratic Party (PD), the Five Star Movement (M5S) and Alleanza Verdi e Sinistra (AVS), formed coalitions in some regional elections but failed to agree in others due to ideological differences and leadership disputes. On 8–9 June, Italy held European Parliament elections alongside regional elections in Piedmont and municipal elections in over 3,700 localities. Fratelli d’Italia (FdI) emerged as the largest party in the European elections, followed by the Democratic Party (PD) and the Five Star Movement (M5S). In July, Meloni — who is also president of the European Conservatives— did not vote for Ursula von der Leyen's reappointment as President of the European Commission, abstaining in the European Council vote. However, Meloni later approved the new Commission after securing a key position for Raffaele Fitto, who was appointed as Vice President.
On the international stage, Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni sought to strengthen Italy’s transatlantic ties. On 20 January 2025, she was the only European Union leader to attend the inauguration of U.S. President Donald Trump, aiming to foster a “special relationship” with the new administration.
In relation to the ongoing war between Russia and Ukraine, Italy reaffirmed its support for Ukraine, and in January 2025, Meloni hosted Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky at Palazzo Chigi, emphasizing Italy’s commitment to providing military and economic assistance to Kyiv.
Main Political Parties
The Italian Parliament is based on a multi-party system, with the main political forces being:

- Fratelli d'Italia (FdI, Brothers of Italy): right-wing, nationalist, conservative
- Democratic Party (PD): centre-left
- Five Star Movement (M5S): anti-establishment, centre-left, catch-all political movement
- Lega: right-wing, populist, Euro-sceptic
- Forza Italia (FI): centre-right, liberalism
- Alleanza Verdi e Sinistra (Greens and Left Alliance): left-wing political alliance, a federation of two political parties, Italian Left (SI) and Green Europe (EV)
- Italia Viva (IV): centre-left, liberal
- Azione (Action): centre-liberal
- Liberi e Uguali (LeU, Free and Equal): left-wing
- +Europa (+Eu, More Europe): pro-European, social liberalism.

The main coalitions in the latest election were the composed of Fratelli d'Italia, Lega and Forza Italia (right/centre-right); PD, Alleanza Verdi e Sinistra and +Europa (centre-left); and the "Terzo Polo" formed by Italia Viva and Azione. The Five Star Movement did not enter any coalition.
Executive Power
Italy is a parliamentary republic, hence the President of the Republic's role is mostly cerimonial. He is the chief of state and is indirectly elected for a 7-year term.
The Prime Minister (officially the President of the Council of Ministers) is the head of the government and holds executive power, which includes the implementation of the law and the running of the everyday business of the country. The Prime Minister is appointed by the President and confirmed by the Parliament, on the basis of the support of the majority. He or she has a five year term of office. The Council of Ministers is appointed by the Prime Minister and approved by the President.
Legislative Power
Legislative power in Italy is bicameral and both chambers possess significant powers and prerogatives. The Senate (Senato della Repubblica) has 200 members (plus senators for life), while the Chamber of Deputies (Camera dei deputati) has 400members. Universal suffrage has been part of Italian elections since the writing of the Constitution in 1948, but Italian electoral law has shifted substantially over the years. The electoral system was modified in 2005, in 2015 and once again in 2017. In a 2020 referendum, voters approved a constitutional law that would amend the Constitution by reducing the number of MPs in the Parliament from 630 to 400 in the Chamber of Deputies and from 315 to 200 in the Senate (the modifications took effect with the last general election held in 2022).
The executive branch of government depends directly or indirectly on the support of parliament, often expressed by a vote of confidence. The prime minister cannot dissolve the parliament, as such power is attributed to the President. Italian citizens enjoy considerable political rights.
 

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