Economic Overview

For the latest updates on the key economic responses from governments to address the economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, please consult the IMF's policy tracking platform Policy Responses to COVID-19.

According to the IMF, the Indian economy grew by an estimated 6.8% in 2022, mainly driven by the pickup in economic activities in the travel industry, trade, construction, mining, electricity, and manufacturing. One of the fastest-growing economies in the world, India is expected to keep growing in the coming years, with global off-shoring, digitisation, and energy transition setting the scene for unprecedented economic growth in the country. According to the IMF, the economy is expected to register an estimated GDP growth of 6.1% in 2023 and 6.8% in 2024.

Thanks to global trends and key investments made in technology and energy, India is on track to becoming one of the world's top economies. In 2022, the country continued recovering from the impacts of the pandemic, with India’s broad range of fiscal stimuli and health responses proving their effectiveness. By the end of the year, the country’s general government deficit stood at an estimated 8.5%, a rate which should remain relatively stable in 2023 and 2024, at 8.3% and 8.4/%, respectively. According to the IMF, inflation increased to 6.9% in 2022, but it is expected to decrease to 5.1% in 2023 and 4.4% in 2024. The level of public debt remains high - it was estimated at 83.4% in 2022 - and it is expected to remain virtually unchanged in the next two years, at 83.8% in 2023 and 84.1% in 2024. The government is focused on reducing inequality, as it seeks to implement growth oriented reforms to get the economy back on track, such as MSME incentives, infrastructure sector boost, agriculture infrastructure, micro food enterprises, increased public employment outlay, and special liquidity window. According to the government, the MSME sector is crucial for the inclusive growth of the economy and, as such, it's become a major priority, with various programmes for the development and promotion of MSMEs being put in place across the country.

India is expected to overtake China as the world’s most populous country by 2024. It has the world’s largest youth population, nevertheless, according to the OECD, over 30% of India's youth are NEETs (not in employment, education or training). India continues to suffer from a low GDP per capita (USD 2,098), and almost 25% of the population still lives below the poverty line (about one-third of the world’s population living on under USD 1.90/day lives in India) and the country's inequalities are very strong: the richest 1% of the population own 53% of the country’s wealth. Additionally, the informal sector, where the vast majority of India’s labour force is employed, has been particularly affected by the COVID-19 pandemic, increasing their risk of slipping back into poverty. According to the CMIE, India's unemployment rate stood at 8.3% of total labour force in 2022, with rates being higher in urban areas (10%) than in the rural parts of the country (7.4%).

Foreign Trade

India used to be a protectionist state for a long time, but the country has become progressively more open to international trade. Currently, trade represents 45.3% of the country's GDP. The country mainly exports petroleum oils (13.7%), diamonds (6.3%), medicaments (4.3%), articles of jewellery (2.7%), and rice (2.4%), while it imports petroleum oils (18.7%), gold (9.8%), diamonds (4.6%), coal and similar solid fuels (4.5%), petroleum gas and other gaseous hydrocarbons (4.2%). According to IMF Foreign Trade Forecasts, the volume of exports of goods and services increased by 3.9% in 2022 and is expected to further increase in 2023, reaching at 4.9%, while the volume of imports of goods and services increased by 10.1% in 2022 and is expected to increase by 7.2% in 2023.

India's main partners are the United States, China, the United Arab Emirates, Switzerland, Saudi Arabia, Bangladesh, and Hong Kong. The country has recently signed free trade agreements with South Korea and ASEAN, and has entered into negotiations with several partners (EU, MERCOSUR, Australia, New Zealand and South Africa). In 2021, Brazil and India signaled their interest in expanding the FTA that India has with MERCOSUR, but the expansion is still under negotiation, pending approval from other members of the South American bloc. India is currently the world’s fastest-growing large economy, as well as the world's eighth largest exporter and tenth largest importer of commercial services. However, India’s trade regime and regulatory environment still remains relatively restrictive.

The country's trade balance is structurally negative, given that the country imports nearly 80% of its energy needs. However, as India benefits from the fluctuations in world hydrocarbon prices for its imports, the country's trade deficit has been oscillating for the past few years. In 2021, India exported USD 395 billion worth of goods, while imports accounted for USD 572 billion, resulting in a negative trade balance of USD 176 billion. According to the WTO, in the same year, exports of services amounted to USD 240 billion, whereas the imports of services stood at USD 195 billion, leading to a decrease of the overall trade deficit, which amounted to USD 74 billion.

COVID-19 Country Response

Travel restrictions

Regularly updated travel information for all countries with regards to Covid-19 related entry regulations, flight bans, test and vaccines requirements is available on TravelDoc Infopage.
To find information about the current travel regulations, including health requirements, it is also advised to consult Travel Regulations Map provided and updated on a daily basis by IATA.

Import & export restrictions

A general overview of trade restrictions which were adopted by different countries during the COVID-19 pandemic is available on the International Trade Centre's COVID-19 Temporary Trade Measures webpage.

Economic recovery plan

For the general overview of the key economic policy responses to the COVID-19 pandemic (fiscal, monetary and macroeconomic)underundertaken by the government of India, please consult the country's dedicated section in the IMF’s Policy Tracker platform.

Support plan for businesses

For an evaluation of impact of the Covid pandemic on SMEs and an inventory of country responses to foster SME resilience, refer to the OECD's SME Covid-19 Policy Responses document.
You can also consult the World Bank's Map of SME-Support Measures in Response to COVID-19.