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Economic and political overview

Economic Overview

Heavily dependent on the oil sector and on food imports, the Gabonese economy is vulnerable to global fluctuations in commodity prices. The August 2023 coup d’état led to significant shifts in Gabon’s economic policies, including the adoption of more expansionary fiscal measures and enhanced efforts to strengthen institutions and improve transparency in public financial management. In 2023, Gabon's GDP grew by 2.4%, a slowdown from 2022, as railway blockages caused by landslides disrupted manganese and wood exports. Moderate growth is expected to continue at around 2.9% in 2024-26. Declining reserves will begin to reduce oil output in 2025, but growth will be supported by the expansion of the wood industry, oil palm and rubber plantations, and the start of production at new iron and manganese deposits. Additionally, major public projects will drive growth in construction and services.

Gabon’s fiscal stance has loosened significantly since the August 2023 regime change, driven by the new leadership’s focus on addressing social demands through increased government spending. This has included hiring more civil servants and raising the wage bill by 7% annually in both 2024 and 2025. The budget balance shifted from a 2.5% surplus in 2023—when spending remained moderate and revenue growth was strong—to an estimated 0.2% deficit in 2024 on a cash basis. Additionally, in 2024, the government accumulated substantial payment arrears, with Fitch Ratings estimating the deficit on a commitment basis at 1.7% of GDP, compared to a 1.8% surplus in 2023. Fitch also estimates that the non-oil primary balance to non-oil GDP deteriorated to 13.7% of GDP in 2024, from 10.3% in 2023 and 8.5% in 2021; projecting budget deficits of 1.2% of GDP in 2025 and 1.5% in 2026 on a cash basis, rising to 2.4% and 2.2%, respectively, when factoring in the accumulation of new arrears. Meanwhile, debt declined to 67% of GDP in 2024 from 71% one year earlier, driven by external debt repayments and strong nominal GDP growth. However, it is expected to rise again to 71% in 2025 and 72% in 2026 due to lower nominal oil GDP and wider budget deficits. Inflation continued to ease in 2024 due to expanded price ceilings on essential goods, fuel subsidies, and tight monetary policy, and should remain below the 3.0 regional convergence criteria over the forecast horizon.

Gabon is classified as an upper-middle-income country with a GDP per capita above its neighbours (at USD 24,128 PPP in 2024 as per the IMF). However, social indicators lag behind the country's wealth. A third of the population lives below the poverty line (nearly 5% live on less than a dollar and a half every day), and unemployment is very high: in 2023, it stood at 20.3% (World Bank, ILO estimate). The dominance of non-labour-intensive oil and mining industries, limited private sector growth, and mismatched labour skills contribute to such high unemployment. Persistent joblessness, along with underfunded and poorly targeted social protection, is expected to keep poverty levels high, reaching a projected 39.0% by 2025. The absolute number of people living in poverty in Gabon is expected to exceed one million by 2026 (World Bank).

 
Main Indicators 2023 (E)2024 (E)2025 (E)2026 (E)2027 (E)
GDP (billions USD) 20.0620.9020.9721.5022.06
GDP (Constant Prices, Annual % Change) 2.43.12.62.62.5
GDP per Capita (USD) 9,0799,2579,0949,1289,168
General Government Gross Debt (in % of GDP) 72.173.380.085.491.0
Inflation Rate (%) 3.62.12.22.22.3
Current Account (billions USD) 1.081.060.660.440.24
Current Account (in % of GDP) 5.45.13.12.11.1

Source: IMF – World Economic Outlook Database , October 2021

Country Risk

See the country risk analysis provided by La Coface.

 

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Main Sectors of Industry

Gabon is rich in natural resources. It is among Africa’s largest wood and oil producers in sub-Saharan Africa. The agricultural sector accounts for an estimated 6.5% of GDP (World Bank, latest data available), employing 29.2% of the workforce. Gabon has 22 million hectares of forest, one million hectares of arable agricultural land, and over 800 kilometres of coastline. The sector includes food crops, rubber (especially in the north), and palm oil, with the country relying heavily on food imports: according to the Ministry of Agriculture, Gabon imports food products worth 450 billion CFA annually.

Industry contributes to 53.5% of the country's GDP and around 15.7% of total employment (World Bank). The sector is dominated by petroleum, manganese mining, and timber processing. Hydrocarbons account for 80% of Gabon’s exports and almost half of its GDP (Coface, U.S. ITA). However, the country is facing a decline in its oil reserves. Other activities include textile plants, cement factories, chemical plants, breweries, shipyards, and cigarette factories. Most industrial establishments are located near Libreville and Port-Gentil. Overall, the manufacturing sector is estimated to account for one-fifth of GDP.

The services sector accounts for 38.2% of GDP, employing 55.1% of the active workforce (World Bank). The government is the biggest employer in the sector. Tourism is still embryonic due to poor infrastructures and the country’s landscape mostly covered in forests. Gabon's banking system includes one development bank - the Gabonese Development Bank (BGD) - and five main commercial banks. The International Gabonese and French Bank (BGFI) is the principal bank in Gabon and the largest financial group in the CEMAC zone.

 
Breakdown of Economic Activity By Sector Agriculture Industry Services
Employment By Sector (in % of Total Employment) 29.2 15.7 55.1
Value Added (in % of GDP) 6.5 53.5 38.2
Value Added (Annual % Change) -2.0 3.9 2.5

Source: World Bank - Latest available data.

 
Monetary Indicators 20162017201820192020
CFA Franc (XOF) - Average Annual Exchange Rate For 1 USD 593.01582.09555.72585.90575.59

Source: World Bank - Latest available data.

 

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Foreign Trade

Foreign trade accounts for 91% of the country's GDP (World Bank, latest data available). Customs duties are relatively high, and some other non-tariff barriers also exist, aiming to protect the local industries. Gabonese exports remain heavily focused on traditional sectors such as oil, manganese, and timber. In 2023, the main exports were crude petroleum (55.1%), manganese ore (14.3%), special purpose ships (12.4%), refined petroleum (3.6%), sawn wood (3.1%); whereas imports were led by special purpose ships (21.3%), refined petroleum (5%), cars (2.5%), packaged medicaments (2.2%), and poultry meat (2.2% - data OEC).

In terms of imports, France remained the top supplier with a market share of 14.5% in 2023. It was followed by China (12.5%), South Korea (12.5%), the United States (6.6%), and India (3.7%). In the same year, Gabonese exports were mostly directed towards China (26.1%), Indonesia (8.3%), Spain (7%), Israel (6.4%), and the Republic of the Congo (5.4% - data OEC). Gabon is a member of the WTO, as well as of CEMAC and its free trade area. It has bilateral investment treaties with Belgium, Luxembourg, China, Egypt, France, Germany, Italy, Lebanon, Mali, Morocco, Portugal, São Tomé and Príncipe, South Africa, Spain, and Turkey.

Gabon’s trade balance is structurally in surplus, thanks to the revenues generated by oil exports. In 2023, total exports of goods amounted to USD 7.7 billion while total imports reached USD 6.1 billion, resulting in a comfortable trade surplus (WTO). On the side of services, Gabon’s exports are almost non-existent. The overall trade balance for goods and services was estimated to be positive by 36% of GDP in 2023 by the World Bank, from 43.1% one year earlier.

 
Foreign Trade Values 20192020202120222023
Imports of Goods (million USD) 2,5383,4843,6465,1326,100
Exports of Goods (million USD) 6,7227,3458,0319,0767,700
Imports of Services (million USD) 1,8791,3911,4441,617n/a
Exports of Services (million USD) 285135199201n/a

Source: World Trade Organisation (WTO) ; Latest available data

Foreign Trade Indicators 20192020202120222023
Foreign Trade (in % of GDP) 73.470.185.392.191.5
Imports of Goods and Services (Annual % Change) 25.5-6.017.412.5-0.0
Exports of Goods and Services (Annual % Change) 14.010.012.812.9-2.5
Imports of Goods and Services (in % of GDP) 22.022.524.424.527.8
Exports of Goods and Services (in % of GDP) 51.447.660.967.663.7

Source: World Bank ; Latest available data

Foreign Trade Forecasts 20242025 (e)2026 (e)2027 (e)2028 (e)
Volume of exports of goods and services (Annual % change) 4.22.53.22.01.4
Volume of imports of goods and services (Annual % change) 15.96.76.14.53.8

Source: IMF, World Economic Outlook ; Latest available data

Note: (e) Estimated Data

 
International Economic Cooperation
Member of World Trade Organization (WTO)
Member of Economic and Monetary Community of Central Africa (CEMAC)
Member of African Union (AU)
Member of Organisation for the Harmonization of Corporate Law in Africa (OHADA)
 
 

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Political Outline

Current Political Leaders
President: Gen. Brice OLIGUI Nguema (since 4 September 2023)
Prime Minister: Raymond NDONG SIMA (since 7 September 2023)
Next Election Dates
Presidential: August 2025
Senate: August 2025
National Assembly: August 2025
Main Political Parties
Gabon is a multy-party state, though the Gabonese Democratic Party is the one that holds the power. Opposition parties are allowed, but are widely considered to have no real chance of gaining power. Opposition parties include:
- Restoration of Republican Values (RV)
- The Democrats (LD).

Following the 2023 military coup, all the members of the Transitional Parliament appointed by the Transitional president.
Executive Power
The legislative power in Gabon is vested in both the President and the National Assembly. The President, who is also the head of state, is elected for a seven-year term and holds substantial powers, including the ability to appoint the Prime Minister. The Council of Ministers is appointed by the Prime Minister in consultation with the President.

Note: Transitional President Gen. Brice OLIGUI Nguema assumed office on September 4, 2023, following a military coup led by him and a group known as the Committee for the Transition and Restoration of Institutions on August 30, 2023. This coup led to the arrest and detention of President Ali BONGO Ondimba, the cancellation of election results, and the dissolution of state institutions. Gen. OLIGUI was officially sworn in as the transitional president on September 4, 2023.
Legislative Power
The legislative power in Gabon is vested in the Parliament, which has two chambers:

- The National Assembly (Assemblée Nationale) is composed of 120 members. 111 members are elected for a five-year term in single-seat constituencies, and 9 members are appointed by the President.

- The Senate (Sénat) consists of 91 members, elected for a six-year term in single-seat constituencies by local and departmental councillors.

Note: Transitional President Gen. Brice OLIGUI Nguema assumed office on September 4, 2023, following a military coup led by him and a group known as the Committee for the Transition and Restoration of Institutions on August 30, 2023. This coup resulted in the arrest and detention of President Ali BONGO Ondimba, the cancellation of election results, and the dissolution of state institutions. Gen. OLIGUI was officially sworn in as the transitional president on September 4, 2023.

The composition of the Transitional Parliament, which replaced the previous bicameral structure, is as follows:

- The Senate now comprises 70 seats, with members appointed by the Transitional president. The term of office for members is currently not defined.

- The National Assembly consists of 98 seats, with members appointed by the Transitional president. Similarly, the term of office for members is not defined.

This setup raises concerns about the representativeness and democratic nature of the Transitional Parliament. With members appointed by the Transitional president and unclear terms of office, there are questions about the accountability and independence of the legislative body. Such a structure could undermine democratic principles and popular representation, potentially paving the way for authoritarian tendencies and reducing transparency in governance.
 

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