
Economic Overview
Despite being vulnerable to the international conjuncture, Finland is often cited as a model example for its economic performance, competitiveness and innovative success. However, following a contraction in 2023 (-1.2%), Finland's real GDP growth remained weak through 2024 and 2025. Goods exports dropped sharply in early 2024 due to prolonged port strikes, while private consumption stagnated amid rising unemployment and social benefit cuts. However, government consumption and net exports subsequently bolstered growth, with strong services exports and steady equipment investment signalling a gradual recovery. Despite these positive trends, real GDP rose by only 0.4% in 2024 and by 0.2% in 2025, held back by a persistently weak labour market (Statistics Finland). Real GDP is projected to grow by 0.8% in 2026 and 1.4% in 2027 according to the EU Commission (1.0% in 2026, as per the IMF), driven by domestic demand despite fiscal consolidation measures remaining in force.
In 2025, Finland's general government deficit stood at around 3.4% of GDP, after 3.7% in 2024, driven by higher government spending and weaker public revenue growth. Increased government consumption, social benefits, and rising interest expenses were key factors. On the revenue side, cuts in social security contributions and lower tax receipts due to the economic slowdown further widened the gap. The deficit is projected to widen to 4.5% of GDP in 2026 as defence and interest spending outpace the revenue benefits of consolidation. These measures include expenditure cuts and the full impact of the 2024 VAT rate hike alongside higher taxes on income and social contributions. By 2027, the deficit is expected to reach 4.6% of GDP, with expenditure growth continuing to outpace revenue recovery (data from the EU Commission). The general government debt-to-GDP ratio stood at 88.5% in 2025, with the increase attributed to the primary deficit within central government finances, as well as deficits in local governments. The projection indicates a continued upward trend in the general government debt-to-GDP ratio, reaching 91.2% in 2026 and further escalating to 93.1% next year (EU Commission). Subdued energy prices kept overall price increases contained at 1.8% in 2025 (from 1.2% one year earlier). Mostly due to the higher VAT rate, HICP inflation is forecast to increase to around 2.4% in 2026 before easing to 1.9% in 2027. High pension sector assets, totalling 94% of GDP at the end of March 2024, with over one-third held in public pension funds, remain a key rating strength. Alongside ongoing reform plans, they help alleviate the impact of a rapidly ageing population. Long-term projections suggest these assets will decline to about 75% of GDP by 2050 despite demographic challenges (Fitch Ratings).
Finland's GDP per capita – estimated at USD 57,181 (PPP) in 2025 by the IMF - is among the highest in the world and higher than the EU-27 average, allowing the country to offer a high living standard. The distribution of wealth is relatively balanced, although social inequalities have risen in recent years. Finland is the European country most impacted by an ageing population and the fall of its labour force, a phenomenon that weighs heavily on its public finances. Other challenges that the country will be facing are the decreasing productivity in traditional industries and the need for a reduction of high labour costs. Amid a declining vacancy rate, employment growth slowed to 0.8% in 2023, impacted by a sharp decline in the construction sector, while the unemployment rate rose to 7.2%. Employment contracted further in 2024 and 2025, reflecting weakened economic activity, particularly in manufacturing, construction, and professional services, though labour shortages persisted in sectors like healthcare. Despite gradually improving economic conditions, the unemployment rate rose to 9.7% in 2025 and is expected to reach 10.1% in 2026 before easing to 9.8% in 2027.
| Main Indicators | 2025 (E) | 2026 (E) | 2027 (E) | 2028 (E) | 2029 (E) |
| GDP (billions USD) | 316.86 | 337.67 | 350.31 | 361.68 | 374.79 |
| GDP (Constant Prices, Annual % Change) | 0.2 | 1.0 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 1.4 |
| GDP per Capita (USD) | 56,464 | 60,130 | 62,379 | 64,449 | 66,835 |
| General Government Balance (in % of GDP) | -3.9 | -4.8 | -4.2 | -4.1 | -3.8 |
| General Government Gross Debt (in % of GDP) | 89.3 | 93.1 | 94.2 | 96.2 | 97.9 |
| Inflation Rate (%) | 1.8 | 2.5 | 2.2 | 2.0 | 2.0 |
| Unemployment Rate (% of the Labour Force) | 9.7 | 9.6 | 9.1 | 9.1 | 8.9 |
| Current Account (billions USD) | 3.98 | 0.48 | 1.35 | 1.92 | 2.95 |
| Current Account (in % of GDP) | 1.3 | 0.1 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.8 |
Source: IMF – World Economic Outlook Database , Latest data available
Country Risk
See the country risk analysis provided by La Coface.








