Economic Overview

For the latest updates on the key economic responses from governments to address the economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, please consult the IMF's policy tracking platform Policy Responses to COVID-19.

After its recovery from the crisis, Estonian growth was affected by an unfavourable regional situation (European sanctions against Russia and the following counter-sanctions), but it grew at a fast pace in recent years until the breakout of the COVID-19 pandemic. ). In 2021, Estonia’s economy rebounded, whereas in 2022 GDP growth was sluggish: while it was estimated at 1% by the IMF, the EU Commission recorded a contraction of 0.3%. In fact, the national economy was severely hit by the steep rise in energy prices and suffered from a strong pass-through to other inflation components, therefore both private consumption and industrial output slowed markedly towards the end of the year. GDP, however, is forecast to return to growth in 2023 (1.8% according to the IMF forecast) as the current headwinds, notably inflation, weak external demand and low confidence gradually subside. 2024 should see a more robust expansion driven by a revitalisation of export demand and private consumption.

Estonia became a member of the European Union on May 1 2004 and was the first former Soviet country to join the OECD in May 2010. This Baltic republic has managed to move from a state-run and centralised economy to a dynamic market economy, liberalised by a succession of governments observing strict budgetary orthodoxy and modernising the country. The country has stood out, mainly thanks to its IT sector (the invention of Skype, mobile payment systems, internet voting, multifunctional electronic identity cards and initiatives in the sphere of cybersecurity), as well as its performances in the green energy sector. Furthermore, Estonia enjoys relative energy independence through the exploitation of shale oil, of which the country is one of the world's largest producers and which covers a large part of its electricity needs. In general, the country has stable public finances; in 2022, the general government fiscal deficit was contained (1.7% of GDP as per Fitch Ratings estimates) thanks to higher revenues prompted by the rise in inflation. For 2023, Fitch foresees a deficit of 4.4% of GDP (as opposed to 2% according to the IMF). As a result of widening fiscal deficits and weaker growth, the general government debt-to-GDP ratio is set to rise, reaching 20.3% by 2024 from 18.3% estimated for 2022. Although it is a marked increase compared to the pre-pandemic ratio of 8.5%, the ratio is still the lowest in the EU. The global energy price hikes and supply bottlenecks contributed to a rise in manufacturing, transport and delivery costs, with a strong pass-through to other inflation components, resulting in an overall rate of 21% over the course of 2022. The deceleration recorded from August is expected to continue in 2023 driven by declining commodity and energy prices, with the inflation rate projected at 9.5%, before it returns closer to the ECB’s target in 2024 (2.5%).

In recent years, the Estonian labour market has been characterized by labour shortages and consequently rising nominal wages. Unemployment increased to 6.6% in 2022, from 6.2% one year earlier. Corporate expectations for employment became more pessimistic towards the end of the year and the IMF forecasts the unemployment rate to slightly edge up to 6.8% in 2023. In 2021, the Estonian real GDP per capita (PPP) was estimated at USD 46,126 by the IMF, still below the EU average. According to the latest data published by Eurostat, 22.3% of the population is at risk of poverty.

Foreign Trade

Estonia is considered one of the most liberal countries in the world and is very open to trade, which represents 157% of GDP (World Bank, latest edition). In 2022, the country mainly exported mineral products (19%), electrical equipment (13%), wood (11%), and agricultural products (10%); while the main imports comprised mineral products (20%), electrical equipment (11%), machinery and mechanical appliances (10%), and base metals and related articles (10% - data Statistics Estonia).

In 2022, the country’s major trading partners were Finland (15% of total exports), Latvia (14%) and Sweden (9%). The top partner countries for Estonia’s imports of goods were Finland (16% of total imports), Lithuania, Germany, and Latvia (all three accounting for 10% - data Statistics Estonia). The biggest decrease occurred in imports from Belarus and Russia (down by EUR 484 million and 293 million, respectively) due to the ongoing conflict in Ukraine and the EU sanctions that followed. Overall, the EU accounted for 70% of total exports and 78% of imports.

Estonia's merchandise trade balance is structurally negative. According to figures from WTO, in 2021 the country exported goods worth USD 21.5 billion (+26.7% y-o-y), while imports totalled USD 23.6 billion (+36.1%). In terms of services, Estonia is a net exporter: in 2021 exports reached USD 9.9 billion against USD 8.2 billion in imports. According to the World Bank, the country’s trade balance was negative by 0.4% of GDP. According to figures from the national statistics agency, exports of goods increased by 17% and imports by 23% in 2022 vis-à-vis 2021. Their value was estimated at USD 21.2 billion and 24.5 billion, respectively. Re-exports from Estonia grew by 42%, while exports of domestic goods increased by 7% so that the share of goods of Estonian origin in total exports was 66%.

COVID-19 Country Response

COVID-19 epidemic evolution

To find out about the latest status of the COVID-19 pandemic evolution and the most up-to-date statistics on the COVID-19 disease in Estonia, please visit the official portal Koroonakaart.ee, providing information on the geographical distribution of the epidemic, as well as on the age and gender. The website of the Estonian Health Board publishes daily updates on the situation.
For the international outlook you can consult the latest situation reports published by the World Health Organisation as well as the global daily statistics on the coronavirus pandemic evolution including data on confirmed cases and deaths by country.

Sanitary measures

To find out about the latest public health situation in Estonia and the current sanitary measures in vigour, please consult the dedicated governmental portal Kriis.ee, as well as the website of the Estonian Police and Border Guard Board, including the up-to-date information on the containment measures put in place. Public health recommendations can be found on the website of the Estonian Health Board.

Travel restrictions

The COVID-19 situation, including the spread of new variants, evolves rapidly and differs from country to country. All travelers need to pay close attention to the conditions at their destination before traveling. Regularly updated information for all countries with regards to Covid-19 related travel restrictions in place including entry regulations, flight bans, test requirements and quarantine is available on TravelDoc Infopage.
It is also highly recommended to consult COVID-19 Travel Regulations Map provided and updated on the daily basis by IATA.
The US government website of Centers of Disease Control and Prevention provides COVID-19 Travel Recommendations by Destination.
The UK Foreign travel advice also provides travelling abroad advice for all countries, including the latest information on coronavirus, safety and security, entry requirements and travel warnings.

Import & export restrictions

Following the measures taken by the European Commission, an export license is required to export personal protective equipment outside of the European Union.
For updates consult the website of the Estonian Tax and Customs Board.
For a general overview of trade restrictions due to COVID-19 pandemic, please consult the section dedicated to Estonia on the International Trade Centre's COVID-19 Temporary Trade Measures webpage.

Economic recovery plan

To know about the economic measures taken by the Estonian government to address the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the national economy, please visit the dedicated section on the official portal Kriis.ee. The Ministry of Economic Affairs and Communications and the Tax and Customs Board provide further information. Click here for info about the Temporary subsidy program under the Estonian Unemployment Insurance Fund.
The information on the EU’s economic response to COVID-19 and the actions to minimise the fallout on the EU member states’ economies of the COVID-19 outbreak is available on the website of the European Council.
For the general overview of the key economic policy responses to the COVID-19 outbreak (fiscal, monetary and macroeconomic) taken by the Estonia government to limit the socio-economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, please consult the section dedicated to Estonia in the IMF’s Policy Tracker platform.

Support plan for businesses

For information on the local business support scheme and taxation measures established by the Estonian government to help businesses to deal with the economic impacts of the COVID-19 epidemic on their activity, please consult the website of the Ministry of Economic Affairs and Communications and that of the Estonian government. Further details can be found on the website of Enterprise Estonia (in Estonian) and on InvestInEstonia.
For a general overview of international SME support policy responses to the COVID-19 outbreak refer to the World Bank's Map of SME-Support Measures in Response to COVID-19.

Support plan for exporters

The Estonian government decided to lower the fees for Enterprise Estonia’s export services.
The European Commission adopted a Temporary Framework for State aid measures to support the economy in the COVID-19 outbreak, which enables short-term export credit insurance to be provided by the State where needed.