Economic Overview

After becoming the 28th member state of the EU on July 1, 2013, the Croatian economy was only able to return to growth in 2015: since 2008, the country had experienced six consecutive years of economic recession, with the GDP falling by 12% (EU data). In recent years, the country managed to recover and return to its pre-crisis level already in 2021. After growing 6.2% in 2022, Croatia's GDP growth is estimated to have remained robust at 2.7% last year. Economic activity was buoyed by domestic demand, with private consumption benefiting from favorable wage trends and positive consumer sentiment. Strong investment growth was bolstered by EU funds. In 2024, real GDP is expected to grow by 2.6%, primarily driven by robust domestic demand and reflecting substantial carry-over effects from previous periods (IMF). Investment and public consumption growth are projected to slow down but maintain strength, given the ongoing execution of the Recovery and Resilience Plan and anticipated improvements in financing conditions.

Croatia's public debt stood at 63.8% of GDP in 2023, down from 68.8% one year earlier, with the ratio expected to decrease further this year (61.8%) and in 2025 (60.3%). In 1H23, budget performance demonstrated strength due to the surge in indirect tax revenues driven by elevated inflation. However, expenses escalated in the latter part of the year due to the costs associated with pension indexation, the recent support package, and the increments in public sector wages. The overall budget deficit was estimated at 1.3% of GDP by the IMF. Lower nominal growth and adjustments to personal income taxation and social contribution rates should lead to diminished budget revenues in 2024, resulting in a projected deficit of 2.1% of GDP (IMF). In 2023, HICP inflation dropped to 8.6%, down from 10.7% in 2022, with inflation excluding energy and food reaching 8.8%. Both surpassed the respective euro area rates of 5.4% and 5%. The slowdown in HICP inflation throughout 2023 was primarily influenced by declines in energy and processed food prices. Meanwhile, services inflation demonstrated greater persistence. Inflation is anticipated to reach 4.2% and 2.5% in 2024 and 2025, respectively, with the prices of energy and unprocessed food forecasted to be the main drivers of the downward trend. Meanwhile, services inflation is expected to remain relatively stable.

According to IMF estimates, unemployment decreased to 6.3% in 2023, from 6.8% one year earlier, and is expected to follow a downward trend in 2024 (5.9%) and 2025 (5.6%). The government sector is anticipated to provide substantial support to wage growth, particularly with significant (one-off) increases expected as part of the public sector wage-setting reform. Though the average revenue of Croatians is still below the European one (with an estimated GDP per capita PPP of USD 40,380 in 2022 according to the World Bank), Croatia remains the second most developed economy of the Balkan region, after Slovenia.

Foreign Trade

Croatia joined the WTO in 2000 and depends heavily on foreign trade, which amounts to 125% of the GDP (World Bank, latest data available). The country mainly exports petroleum oils (6.3%), electrical energy (5.8%), petroleum gas and other gaseous hydrocarbons (5.6%), medicaments (2.7%), wood sawn or chipped lengthwise (2.3%); while imports are driven by petroleum gas and other gaseous hydrocarbons (9.4%), petroleum oils (non-crude) (6.9%), electrical energy (5.1%), motor cars and other motor vehicles (3.4%), petroleum oils and oils (crude) (2.9% - data Comtrade 2022).

In 2022, the main export partners were Italy (12.2%), Slovenia (11.6%), Germany (11.4%), Hungary (11.2%), and Bosnia and Herzegovina (10.4%). In the same period, the leading import origins were Italy (13.8%), Germany (12.5%), Slovenia (10.8%), the United States (7.6%), and Hungary (7.3% - Comtrade). Overall, the EU accounted for 68.7% of total exports and 70.4% for imports (DZS).

In terms of merchandise, Croatia has a structural trade deficit: according to figures by the WTO, in 2022 exports of goods totaled USD 25.3 billion (+15.6% y-o-y) while imports increased by 28.3%, to USD 44.3 billion. However, the country is a net exporter of services, with exports – at USD 20.9 billion – far above imports (USD 6 billion). According to figures by the World Bank, the overall trade deficit stood at an estimated 6.2% of GDP in 2022, much higher than the level of 2.7% recorded one year earlier. Preliminary figures from the Croatian Bureau of Statistics show that in 2023 exports declined by 5.3% year-on-year to EUR 22.834 billion, while imports saw a 6% decrease to EUR 39.373 billion.

COVID-19 Country Response

Travel restrictions

Regularly updated travel information for all countries with regards to Covid-19 related entry regulations, flight bans, test and vaccines requirements is available on TravelDoc Infopage.
To find information about the current travel regulations, including health requirements, it is also advised to consult Travel Regulations Map provided and updated on a daily basis by IATA.

Import & export restrictions

A general overview of trade restrictions which were adopted by different countries during the COVID-19 pandemic is available on the International Trade Centre's COVID-19 Temporary Trade Measures webpage.

Economic recovery plan

The summary of the EU’s economic response to the COVID-19 pandemic is available on the website of the European Council.
For the general overview of the key economic policy responses to the COVID-19 outbreak (fiscal, monetary and macroeconomic) in Croatia, please consult the country's dedicated section in the IMF’s Policy Tracker platform.

Support plan for businesses

For an evaluation of impact of the Covid pandemic on SMEs and an inventory of country responses to foster SME resilience, refer to the OECD's SME Covid-19 Policy Responses document.
You can also consult the World Bank's Map of SME-Support Measures in Response to COVID-19.