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Economic and political overview

Economic Overview

Heavily reliant on oil revenues, the Republic of Congo's real GDP contracted by an average of 1.9% per year from 2015 to 2023, resulting in a cumulative 32% decline in income per capita (World Bank). The economic downturn began with the fall in oil prices between 2014 and 2016, further worsened by cuts in public spending and the accumulation of domestic arrears, which ultimately led to a reduction in private investment. The COVID-19 pandemic prolonged the recession, bringing GDP per capita down to levels not seen since the early 1970s. After growing 2% in 2023, economic activity expanded an estimated 2.6% last year as non-hydrocarbon sector growth (3.1%) outpaced that of the hydrocarbon sector (0.8%). Strong private consumption and investment drove activity in forestry, manufacturing, and telecommunications, supporting overall non-hydrocarbon growth. However, ongoing operational challenges continue to affect oil production in the hydrocarbon sector (IMF).

The fiscal surplus decreased to 2.8% of GDP in 2024 and is expected to decline further to 1.9% in 2025-2026, primarily due to a projected drop in oil prices. Increased social spending and capital expenditure are likely to negatively affect the budget surplus; however, new investments in oil equipment and fields could boost production and help maintain the fiscal surplus. Congo's debt-to-GDP ratio remains high (at around 93.3% in 2024, from 99% one year earlier), posing fiscal risks, but is projected to decline to 86.6% in 2025-2026, thanks to recent reforms (IMF). In October 2024, the government exchanged 53% of its outstanding domestic bonds, representing 25% of domestic debt, extending maturities while keeping coupons and principals unchanged. Fitch classified this exchange as a distressed debt exchange (DDE) aimed at avoiding a traditional payment default. Inflationary pressures persisted in 2024, reaching an estimated 3.8% (down from 4.3% in 2023). The World Bank forecasts inflation to return within the BEAC target of 3% by 2025. Overall, to achieve resilient, sustainable, and inclusive growth, Congo needs to accelerate structural reforms and diversify its economy. This involves shifting away from reliance on hydrocarbons toward broader-based sectors like agribusiness, manufacturing, and tourism while fostering fair competition, improving governance, and reducing bureaucratic barriers to support a more business-friendly environment and create jobs (IMF).

Extreme poverty rose from 33.5% in 2015 to 46.6% in 2022, erasing earlier gains in poverty reduction. According to World Bank estimates, the poverty rate edged up slightly to 46.8% in 2024 but is projected to decline to an average of 46.0% in 2025–2026. The unemployment rate was estimated at around 19.9% in 2023, with the informal sector playing a prominent role, engaging about 80% of urban workers. Lastly, the country’s GDP per capita is very low, estimated at USD 6,403 in 2024 by the IMF (PPP).

 
Main Indicators 2023 (E)2024 (E)2025 (E)2026 (E)2027 (E)
GDP (billions USD) 14.1715.0415.9216.8217.74
GDP (Constant Prices, Annual % Change) 2.02.83.73.53.5
GDP per Capita (USD) 2,3092,3842,4542,5222,588
General Government Gross Debt (in % of GDP) 99.093.389.083.277.1
Inflation Rate (%) 4.34.03.63.23.0
Current Account (billions USD) 0.910.380.330.350.20
Current Account (in % of GDP) 6.42.52.12.11.1

Source: IMF – World Economic Outlook Database , October 2021

Country Risk

See the country risk analysis provided by La Coface.

 

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Main Sectors of Industry

In Congo, agriculture contributes 9% of GDP and employs 30.2% of the active population (World Bank, latest data available), with the majority engaged in subsistence farming. Despite having fertile land, only a small portion is cultivated, less than 10%. The country’s territory is mostly covered by forests, accounting for 70% of its land area. However, the forestry sector’s contribution to GDP is less than 5%. Agriculture is mainly focused on subsistence farming, leading Congo to rely heavily on food imports, with 'food products and beverages' comprising over half of the country’s imports and about 80% of domestic food consumption. The main crops include cassava, plantains, bananas, peanuts, and palm oil.

The industrial sector contributes 45.2% of GDP and employs 23.2% of the workforce, driven by the petroleum, timber, and mining sectors. Congo is the leading oil producer in the CEMAC region, with an estimated annual production of at least 270,000 barrels per day in 2023. Oil accounts for around a quarter of GDP, two-thirds of budgetary revenues, and over 80% of export revenues, making Congo highly vulnerable to fluctuations in commodity prices. Foreign companies dominate the oil sector, with TotalEnergies being the largest contributor to the country's total annual oil production. Congo possesses significant hydrocarbon reserves, with an estimated 1.8 billion barrels of oil and 284 billion cubic meters of natural gas (OPEC). The manufacturing sector accounts for an estimated 13% of GDP (World Bank) and is limited to sugar production, breweries, flour mills, primary wood processing, and cement production.

The industrial sector contributes 45.2% of GDP and employs 23.2% of the workforce, driven by the petroleum, timber, and mining sectors. Congo is the leading oil producer in the CEMAC region, with an estimated annual production of at least 270,000 barrels per day in 2023. Oil accounts for around a quarter of GDP, two-thirds of budgetary revenues, and over 80% of export revenues making Congo highly vulnerable to fluctuations in commodity prices. Foreign companies dominate the oil sector, with TotalEnergies being the largest contributor to the country's total annual oil production. Congo possesses significant hydrocarbon reserves, with an estimated 1.8 billion barrels of oil and 284 billion cubic meters of natural gas (OPEC). The manufacturing sector accounts for an estimated 13% of GDP (World Bank).

 
Breakdown of Economic Activity By Sector Agriculture Industry Services
Employment By Sector (in % of Total Employment) 30.2 23.2 46.7
Value Added (in % of GDP) 9.0 45.2 40.4
Value Added (Annual % Change) 2.8 0.7 3.4

Source: World Bank - Latest available data.

 
Monetary Indicators 20162017201820192020
CFA Franc BEAC (XAF) - Average Annual Exchange Rate For 1 USD 593.01582.09555.72585.90575.59

Source: World Bank - Latest available data.

 

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Foreign Trade

Congo's foreign trade policy aims to create a conducive environment for international trade, which constitutes around 96% of its GDP (World Bank, latest data available). Customs duties are harmonized by the Central African Customs and Economic Union (UDEAC), ranging from 5% to 30%. As a member of the Central African Economic and Monetary Community (CEMAC) and the Economic Community of Central African States (ECCAS), Congo is integrated into regional trade frameworks. Crude oil is the primary export of Congo, accounting for around 90% of total exports. Raw timber follows as the second-largest export item, with petroleum oils or bituminous minerals and sawn timber also contributing (data French Ministry of Economy). In terms of imports, agricultural and agri-food products are the primary items. This category includes products like "meat and edible offal," "wheat and meslin," "fish," palm oil, and rice. "Instruments and apparatus for medicine" constitute the second-largest import category, followed by "medicines" (data French Ministry of Economy).

In 2023, China emerged as the leading customer and supplier of Congo, accounting for 46.2% of Congolese exports and holding a 23.9% market share in imports. Other important export partners were the United Arab Emirates (22.9%), India (5.6%), Saudi Arabia (5.5%), and Portugal (2.9%). On the other hand, Angola (19.7%), Gabon (9.1%), France (5.9%), and the United Arab Emirates (4.6%) were the main import origins after China (data OEC 2023).

Congo maintains a structurally positive trade balance, largely due to its high exports of hydrocarbons. In 2023, its exports of goods were valued at USD 5.9 billion (down from 7.1 billion one year earlier, due to lower global hydrocarbon prices), while imports totalled USD 3.9 billion (+29.9% y-o-y). In the same year, the country's trade surplus was estimated at 17.6% of GDP, down from 29.5% in the previous year (World Bank, latest data available). According to preliminary figures from the National Statistics Institute (INS), Congo's total exports in the first half of 2024 amounted to XOF 2,255.14 billion (XOF 1,134.15 billion for the first quarter and XOF 1,120.99 billion for the second quarter). This represents a year-on-year decline of 29.47% compared to the first half of 2023. Meanwhile, imports totalled XOF 1,198.78 billion (XOF 599.08 billion for the first quarter and XOF 599.70 billion for the second quarter), showing a year-on-year increase of 7.74%.

 
Foreign Trade Values 20192020202120222023
Imports of Goods (million USD) 2,2421,9082,3523,0403,950
Exports of Goods (million USD) 5,5764,8937,3907,1605,970
Imports of Services (million USD) 1,6631,04100n/a
Exports of Services (million USD) 26523400n/a

Source: World Trade Organisation (WTO) ; Latest available data

Foreign Trade Indicators 20192020202120222023
Foreign Trade (in % of GDP) 91.669.385.598.296.2
Trade Balance (million USD) 4,3082,1994,732n/an/a
Trade Balance (Including Service) (million USD) 2,9101,3913,265n/an/a
Imports of Goods and Services (Annual % Change) -11.2-35.825.05.98.9
Exports of Goods and Services (Annual % Change) -3.7-9.4-1.0-0.71.0
Imports of Goods and Services (in % of GDP) 35.428.632.734.339.3
Exports of Goods and Services (in % of GDP) 56.240.752.863.856.9

Source: World Bank ; Latest available data

Foreign Trade Forecasts 20242025 (e)2026 (e)2027 (e)2028 (e)
Volume of exports of goods and services (Annual % change) -2.52.82.41.61.1
Volume of imports of goods and services (Annual % change) 9.06.33.64.16.9

Source: IMF, World Economic Outlook ; Latest available data

Note: (e) Estimated Data

 
International Economic Cooperation
The Republic of the Congo is a member of the CEMAC - Central African Economic and Monetary Community and the Economic Community of Central African States (CEEAC). The country is also a member of the World Trade Organization (WTO).
 
 

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Political Outline

Current Political Leaders
President: Denis SASSOU-Nguesso (since 1997)
Prime Minister: Anatole Collinet MAKOSSO (since 12 May 2021)
Next Election Dates
Presidential: 21 March 2026
Senate: August 2029
National Assembly: July 2026
Main Political Parties
Although the Republic of the Congo is officially a multi-party state, the Congolese Labour Party (PCT) maintains a dominant position. In the 2022 legislative elections, the PCT secured 112 out of 151 seats in the National Assembly, while its allies won an additional 12 seats. Opposition parties, such as the Pan-African Union for Social Democracy (UPADS) and the Union of Humanist Democrats–YUKI (UDH-YUKI), each secured 7 seats.

The Alliance of the Presidential Majority (AMP) is a coalition that primarily supports the PCT and President Denis Sassou Nguesso.
The Action Movement for Renewal (MAR) and the Citizen's Rally (RC) have historically aligned with the ruling party.
The Congolese Movement for Democracy and Integral Development (MCDDI), founded by Bernard Kolélas, has also been a significant political force, previously cooperating with the PCT.
The Movement for Unity, Solidarity, and Work (MUST) has limited publicly available information about its recent activities.

UPADS, established by former President Pascal Lissouba, remains a notable opposition party.
The Party for the Unity and the Republic (PUR), also known as Club 2002-PUR, has shown support for President Sassou Nguesso in past elections.
The Patriotic Union for Democracy and Progress (UPDP), led by Auguste-Célestin Gongarad Nkoua, has participated in various electoral processes.
The Perspectives and Realities Club (CPR) has scarce available details on its recent political engagement.

The Rally for Democracy and Social Progress (RDPS) has been active in Congolese politics, though recent developments are unclear.
The Republican and Liberal Party (PRL) has little publicly available information about its status.
The Union of Democratic Forces (UDF) has historically aligned with the PCT.
The Union for Democracy and Republic (UDR) and the Union for the Republic (UR) have limited recent public records.

While the Republic of the Congo is formally a multi-party country, the political environment is heavily influenced by the PCT, and opposition parties face significant challenges in gaining power. The political landscape remains dynamic, with party alliances and statuses evolving over time.

Executive Power
According to the 2015 Constitution of the Republic of the Congo, the President of the Republic is the chief executive and head of state. The President is elected by universal suffrage for a five-year term, renewable up to three times. Following the approval of a new Constitution after a referendum in 2015, the Republic of the Congo became a semi-presidential republic with the reintroduction of the post of Prime Minister. The Prime Minister is appointed by the President and is responsible for determining the nation's economic and social policies in concert with the President.
Legislative Power

In the Republic of the Congo, legislative power is vested in a bicameral Parliament composed of:

  • National Assembly (Assemblée Nationale): Consisting of 151 members elected for five-year terms in single-seat constituencies
  • Senate (Sénat): Comprising 72 members elected for six-year terms by district, local, and regional councils.

The executive branch plays a significant role in the legislative process. The Cabinet deliberates on bills, draft ordinances, and draft decrees, while the President, alongside members of Parliament, has the authority to initiate legislation.
 

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